Daily Papers

We introduce a cross-domain behavioural assay of monitoring-control coupling in LLMs, grounded in the Nelson and Narens (1990) metacognitive framework and applying human psychometric methodology to LLM evaluation. The battery comprises 524 items across six cognitive domains (learning, metacognitive calibration, social cognition, attention, executive function, prospective regulation), each grounded in an established experimental paradigm. Tasks T1-T5 were pre-registered on OSF prior to data collection; T6 was added as an exploratory extension. After every forced-choice response, dual probes adapted from Koriat and Goldsmith (1996) ask the model to KEEP or WITHDRAW its answer and to BET or decline. The critical metric is the withdraw delta: the difference in withdrawal rate between incorrect and correct items. Applied to 20 frontier LLMs (10,480 evaluations), the battery discriminates three profiles consistent with the Nelson-Narens architecture: blanket confidence, blanket withdrawal, and selective sensitivity. Accuracy rank and metacognitive sensitivity rank are largely inverted. Retrospective monitoring and prospective regulation appear dissociable (r = .17, 95% CI wide given n=20; exemplar-based evidence is the primary support). Scaling on metacognitive calibration is architecture-dependent: monotonically decreasing (Qwen), monotonically increasing (GPT-5.4), or flat (Gemma). Behavioural findings converge structurally with an independent Type-2 SDT approach, providing preliminary cross-method construct validity. All items, data, and code: https://github.com/synthiumjp/metacognitive-monitoring-battery.

Models that can predict the occurrence of events ahead of time with low false-alarm rates are critical to the acceptance of decision support systems in the medical community. This challenging task is typically treated as a simple binary classification, ignoring temporal dependencies between samples, whereas we propose to exploit this structure. We first introduce a common theoretical framework unifying dynamic survival analysis and early event prediction. Following an analysis of objectives from both fields, we propose Temporal Label Smoothing (TLS), a simpler, yet best-performing method that preserves prediction monotonicity over time. By focusing the objective on areas with a stronger predictive signal, TLS improves performance over all baselines on two large-scale benchmark tasks. Gains are particularly notable along clinically relevant measures, such as event recall at low false-alarm rates. TLS reduces the number of missed events by up to a factor of two over previously used approaches in early event prediction.

Large Language Models have demonstrated profound utility in the medical domain. However, their application to autonomous Electronic Health Records~(EHRs) navigation remains constrained by a reliance on curated inputs and simplified retrieval tasks. To bridge the gap between idealized experimental settings and realistic clinical environments, we present AgentEHR. This benchmark challenges agents to execute complex decision-making tasks, such as diagnosis and treatment planning, requiring long-range interactive reasoning directly within raw and high-noise databases. In tackling these tasks, we identify that existing summarization methods inevitably suffer from critical information loss and fractured reasoning continuity. To address this, we propose RetroSum, a novel framework that unifies a retrospective summarization mechanism with an evolving experience strategy. By dynamically re-evaluating interaction history, the retrospective mechanism prevents long-context information loss and ensures unbroken logical coherence. Additionally, the evolving strategy bridges the domain gap by retrieving accumulated experience from a memory bank. Extensive empirical evaluations demonstrate that RetroSum achieves performance gains of up to 29.16% over competitive baselines, while significantly decreasing total interaction errors by up to 92.3%.

Predictive process monitoring is a process mining task aimed at forecasting information about a running process trace, such as the most correct next activity to be executed. In medical domains, predictive process monitoring can provide valuable decision support in atypical and nontrivial situations. Decision support and quality assessment in medicine cannot ignore domain knowledge, in order to be grounded on all the available information (which is not limited to data) and to be really acceptable by end users. In this paper, we propose a predictive process monitoring approach relying on the use of a {\em transformer}, a deep learning architecture based on the attention mechanism. A major contribution of our work lies in the incorporation of ontological domain-specific knowledge, carried out through a graph positional encoding technique. The paper presents and discusses the encouraging experimental result we are collecting in the domain of stroke management.

Autonomous research systems increasingly make the scientific workflow executable: agents can propose ideas, run code, inspect results, and draft papers. But executable workflows do not by themselves produce research judgment. We analyze where current systems lose trial experience: weak evidence becomes prose, pilot signals become broad claims, memory remains textual, and recurring process failures do not change later behavior. We introduce Sibyl-AutoResearch, a self-evolving AutoResearch framework built around Scientific Trial-and-Error Harnesses. A harness lets agents run bounded trials, preserve positive and negative outcomes, and route lessons into later planning, validation, claim scope, scheduling, critique, writing, and harness repair. We formalize this through two auditable conversion units: trial-to-behavior conversion, which links trial signals to later research actions, and trial-to-harness-behavior conversion, which links recurring process failures to system updates. We implement the framework in SIBYL, a file-backed autonomous research system that exposes the state, roles, memory, gates, and artifact traces needed to inspect these conversion paths. A retrospective audit identifies eight high-confidence conversion events, with a median latency of one iteration and a maximum latency of three iterations. A recovered-failure registry further shows how five naturally occurring failure classes, including duplicate results, stale numbers, and unsupported statistics, were blocked, downgraded, or routed into later repair. These traces do not establish a comparative performance claim; they show that the proposed conversion units are recoverable from realistic autonomous-research workspaces. The SIBYL framework and system are available at https://github.com/Sibyl-Research-Team/AutoResearch-SibylSystem.

Predictive business process monitoring methods exploit logs of completed cases of a process in order to make predictions about running cases thereof. Existing methods in this space are tailor-made for specific prediction tasks. Moreover, their relative accuracy is highly sensitive to the dataset at hand, thus requiring users to engage in trial-and-error and tuning when applying them in a specific setting. This paper investigates Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks as an approach to build consistently accurate models for a wide range of predictive process monitoring tasks. First, we show that LSTMs outperform existing techniques to predict the next event of a running case and its timestamp. Next, we show how to use models for predicting the next task in order to predict the full continuation of a running case. Finally, we apply the same approach to predict the remaining time, and show that this approach outperforms existing tailor-made methods.

Under a unified operational definition, we define LLM memory as a persistent state written during pretraining, finetuning, or inference that can later be addressed and that stably influences outputs. We propose a four-part taxonomy (parametric, contextual, external, procedural/episodic) and a memory quadruple (location, persistence, write/access path, controllability). We link mechanism, evaluation, and governance via the chain write -> read -> inhibit/update. To avoid distorted comparisons across heterogeneous setups, we adopt a three-setting protocol (parametric only, offline retrieval, online retrieval) that decouples capability from information availability on the same data and timeline. On this basis we build a layered evaluation: parametric (closed-book recall, edit differential, memorization/privacy), contextual (position curves and the mid-sequence drop), external (answer correctness vs snippet attribution/faithfulness), and procedural/episodic (cross-session consistency and timeline replay, E MARS+). The framework integrates temporal governance and leakage auditing (freshness hits, outdated answers, refusal slices) and uncertainty reporting via inter-rater agreement plus paired tests with multiple-comparison correction. For updating and forgetting, we present DMM Gov: coordinating DAPT/TAPT, PEFT, model editing (ROME, MEND, MEMIT, SERAC), and RAG to form an auditable loop covering admission thresholds, rollout, monitoring, rollback, and change audits, with specs for timeliness, conflict handling, and long-horizon consistency. Finally, we give four testable propositions: minimum identifiability; a minimal evaluation card; causally constrained editing with verifiable forgetting; and when retrieval with small-window replay outperforms ultra-long-context reading. This yields a reproducible, comparable, and governable coordinate system for research and deployment.

Neural Temporal Point Processes (TPPs) are the prevalent paradigm for modeling continuous-time event sequences, such as user activities on the web and financial transactions. In real-world applications, event data is typically received in a streaming manner, where the distribution of patterns may shift over time. Additionally, privacy and memory constraints are commonly observed in practical scenarios, further compounding the challenges. Therefore, the continuous monitoring of a TPP to learn the streaming event sequence is an important yet under-explored problem. Our work paper addresses this challenge by adopting Continual Learning (CL), which makes the model capable of continuously learning a sequence of tasks without catastrophic forgetting under realistic constraints. Correspondingly, we propose a simple yet effective framework, PromptTPPOur code is available at {\small \url{ https://github.com/yanyanSann/PromptTPP}}, by integrating the base TPP with a continuous-time retrieval prompt pool. The prompts, small learnable parameters, are stored in a memory space and jointly optimized with the base TPP, ensuring that the model learns event streams sequentially without buffering past examples or task-specific attributes. We present a novel and realistic experimental setup for modeling event streams, where PromptTPP consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance across three real user behavior datasets.

A central role of personal-agent memory is to turn stored information and prior interactions into future-oriented assistance. In daily use, useful cues come from what the agent observes and how the user interacts with the agent, and the agent must carry them forward from the current request to similar future tasks. Existing memory benchmarks usually test dialogue recall or task improvement in isolation, leaving the trajectory from streaming observations to later assistance largely untested. We introduce StreamMemBench, a streaming benchmark that constructs a two-step task sequence around each evidence anchor from EgoLife egocentric streams. The initial task tests evidence use, while the follow-up task tests whether feedback and interaction experience are reused. Four metrics diagnose evidence recall, initial evidence use, feedback incorporation, and follow-up reuse. Experiments with eight memory systems across two backbones show that current systems often fail to use observed evidence or turn feedback into reliable follow-up behavior, even when evidence is stored or feedback is incorporated locally. StreamMemBench is publicly available at https://github.com/landian60/StreamMemBench.

Video Anomaly Detection (VAD) automatically identifies anomalous events from video, mitigating the need for human operators in large-scale surveillance deployments. However, three fundamental obstacles hinder real-world adoption: domain dependency and real-time constraints -- requiring near-instantaneous processing of incoming video. To this end, we propose Flashback, a zero-shot and real-time video anomaly detection paradigm. Inspired by the human cognitive mechanism of instantly judging anomalies and reasoning in current scenes based on past experience, Flashback operates in two stages: Recall and Respond. In the offline recall stage, an off-the-shelf LLM builds a pseudo-scene memory of both normal and anomalous captions without any reliance on real anomaly data. In the online respond stage, incoming video segments are embedded and matched against this memory via similarity search. By eliminating all LLM calls at inference time, Flashback delivers real-time VAD even on a consumer-grade GPU. On two large datasets from real-world surveillance scenarios, UCF-Crime and XD-Violence, we achieve 87.3 AUC (+7.0 pp) and 75.1 AP (+13.1 pp), respectively, outperforming prior zero-shot VAD methods by large margins.

Moments when a time series changes its behaviour are called change points. Detection of such points is a well-known problem, which can be found in many applications: quality monitoring of industrial processes, failure detection in complex systems, health monitoring, speech recognition and video analysis. Occurrence of change point implies that the state of the system is altered and its timely detection might help to prevent unwanted consequences. In this paper, we present two online change-point detection approaches based on neural networks. These algorithms demonstrate linear computational complexity and are suitable for change-point detection in large time series. We compare them with the best known algorithms on various synthetic and real world data sets. Experiments show that the proposed methods outperform known approaches.

Video understanding requires models to continuously track and update world state during playback. Although existing benchmarks have advanced video understanding evaluation across multiple dimensions, they provide limited visibility into how models maintain world state over time. We propose SVCBench, a Streaming Video Counting Benchmark that repositions counting as a minimal, controlled probe for diagnosing models' world-state maintenance capability. We decompose this capability into object counting and event counting, forming 8 fine-grained subcategories. Object counting covers tracking currently visible objects and cumulative unique identities, while event counting covers detecting instantaneous actions and tracking complete activity cycles. SVCBench contains 406 videos with frame-by-frame annotations of 10,071 event occurrences and object state changes, yielding 1,000 streaming QA pairs with 4,576 query points distributed along video timelines. By observing state maintenance trajectories through streaming multi-point queries, we design three complementary metrics to diagnose numerical precision, trajectory consistency, and temporal awareness. Evaluations of mainstream video-language models show that current models still exhibit significant deficiencies in spatial-temporal state maintenance, with especially poor performance on periodic event counting. SVCBench provides a diagnostic framework for measuring and improving state maintenance in video understanding systems. Our code and data are available at https://buaa-colalab.github.io/SVCBench.

Computer-use agents provide a promising path toward general software automation because they can interact directly with arbitrary graphical user interfaces instead of relying on brittle, application-specific integrations. Despite recent advances in benchmark performance, strong computer-use agents remain expensive and slow in practice, since most systems invoke large multimodal models at nearly every interaction step. We argue that this uniform allocation of compute is fundamentally inefficient for long-horizon GUI tasks. Such trajectories are highly heterogeneous: many steps are routine and can be handled reliably by smaller, cheaper policies, while errors tend to concentrate at a relatively small number of high-risk moments. Across computer-use benchmarks, these failures repeatedly take two forms: progress stalls, where the agent loops, repeats ineffective actions, or fails to make meaningful progress, and silent semantic drift, where the agent continues taking locally plausible actions after already deviating from the user's true goal. To address this inefficiency, we propose an event-driven, step-level cascade for computer-use agents that runs a small policy by default and escalates to a stronger model only when lightweight learned monitors detect elevated risk. Our framework combines two complementary signals: a Stuck Monitor that detects degraded progress from recent reasoning-action history and triggers recovery, and a Milestone Monitor that identifies semantically meaningful checkpoints where sparse verification is most informative for catching drift. This design turns always-on frontier-model inference into adaptive, on-demand compute allocation over the course of an evolving interaction. The framework is modular and deployment-oriented: it can be layered on top of existing computer-use agents without changing the underlying agent architecture or retraining the large model.

Recency bias in a sequential recommendation system refers to the overly high emphasis placed on recent items within a user session. This bias can diminish the serendipity of recommendations and hinder the system's ability to capture users' long-term interests, leading to user disengagement. We propose a simple yet effective novel metric specifically designed to quantify recency bias. Our findings also demonstrate that high recency bias measured in our proposed metric adversely impacts recommendation performance too, and mitigating it results in improved recommendation performances across all models evaluated in our experiments, thus highlighting the importance of measuring recency bias.

Existing medical video benchmarks primarily evaluate whether a model produces the correct answer, but rarely assess whether it answers at the right time. In real clinical settings, AI systems must decide not only what to predict, but also when to answer, defer judgment, or proactively raise alerts. This creates a critical gap between benchmark evaluation and deployment requirements. We present MedStreamBench, a benchmark for time-aware medical video understanding. MedStreamBench integrates 22 medical datasets and 5,419 QA instances across four temporal settings: retrospective, present, future, and proactive. Unlike conventional benchmarks that assume full-video access, MedStreamBench restricts models to temporally bounded evidence windows and supports both single-turn and streaming evaluation. We further introduce a proactive monitoring setting that requires models to determine whether and when clinically relevant alerts should be triggered. Beyond answer correctness, MedStreamBench evaluates temporal behavior through responsiveness and post-evidence stability. Experiments on leading general-purpose and medical vision-language models reveal a substantial gap between offline recognition and temporally grounded decision-making, with performance dropping markedly in streaming and proactive settings. Our benchmark is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/Venn2024/MedStreamBench.

Imitation learning has enabled robots to acquire complex visuomotor manipulation skills from demonstrations, but deployment failures remain a major obstacle, especially for long-horizon action-chunked policies. Once execution drifts off the demonstration manifold, these policies often continue producing locally plausible actions without recovering from the failure. Existing runtime monitors either require failure data, over-trigger under benign feature drift, or stop at failure detection without providing a recovery mechanism. We present Rewind-IL, a training-free online safeguard framework for generative action-chunked imitation policies. Rewind-IL combines a zero-shot failure detector based on Temporal Inter-chunk Discrepancy Estimate (TIDE), calibrated with split conformal prediction, with a state-respawning mechanism that returns the robot to a semantically verified safe intermediate state. Offline, a vision-language model identifies recovery checkpoints in demonstrations, and the frozen policy encoder is used to construct a compact checkpoint feature database. Online, Rewind-IL monitors self-consistency in overlapping action chunks, tracks similarity to the checkpoint library, and, upon failure, rewinds execution to the latest verified safe state before restarting inference from a clean policy state. Experiments on real-world and simulated long-horizon manipulation tasks, including transfer to flow-matching action-chunked policies, demonstrate that policy-internal consistency coupled with semantically grounded respawning offers a practical route to improved reliability in imitation learning. Supplemental materials are available at https://sjay05.github.io/rewind-il

Large-scale pre-trained models (PTMs) such as BERT and GPT have recently achieved great success in Natural Language Processing and Computer Vision domains. However, the development of PTMs on healthcare time-series data is lagging behind.This underscores the limitations of the existing transformer-based architectures, particularly their scalability to handle large-scale time series and ability to capture long-term temporal dependencies. In this study, we present Timely Generative Pre-trained Transformer (TimelyGPT). TimelyGPT employs an extrapolatable position (xPos) embedding to encode trend and periodic patterns into time-series representations. It also integrates recurrent attention and temporal convolution modules to effectively capture global-local temporal dependencies. We evaluated TimelyGPT on two large-scale healthcare time series datasets corresponding to continuous biosignals and irregularly-sampled time series, respectively. Our experiments show that during pre-training, TimelyGPT excels in learning time-series representations from continuously monitored biosignals and irregularly-sampled time series data commonly observed in longitudinal electronic health records (EHRs). In forecasting continuous biosignals, TimelyGPT achieves accurate extrapolation up to 6,000 timesteps of body temperature during the sleep stage transition, given a short look-up window (i.e., prompt) containing only 2,000 timesteps. For irregularly-sampled time series, TimelyGPT with a proposed time-specific inference demonstrates high top recall scores in predicting future diagnoses using early diagnostic records, effectively handling irregular intervals between clinical records. Together, we envision TimelyGPT to be useful in a broad spectrum of health domains, including long-term patient health state forecasting and patient risk trajectory prediction.

We introduce AutoMonitor-Bench, the first benchmark designed to systematically evaluate the reliability of LLM-based misbehavior monitors across diverse tasks and failure modes. AutoMonitor-Bench consists of 3,010 carefully annotated test samples spanning question answering, code generation, and reasoning, with paired misbehavior and benign instances. We evaluate monitors using two complementary metrics: Miss Rate (MR) and False Alarm Rate (FAR), capturing failures to detect misbehavior and oversensitivity to benign behavior, respectively. Evaluating 12 proprietary and 10 open-source LLMs, we observe substantial variability in monitoring performance and a consistent trade-off between MR and FAR, revealing an inherent safety-utility tension. To further explore the limits of monitor reliability, we construct a large-scale training corpus of 153,581 samples and fine-tune Qwen3-4B-Instruction to investigate whether training on known, relatively easy-to-construct misbehavior datasets improves monitoring performance on unseen and more implicit misbehaviors. Our results highlight the challenges of reliable, scalable misbehavior monitoring and motivate future work on task-aware designing and training strategies for LLM-based monitors.

Automating radiology report generation can significantly alleviate radiologists' workloads. Previous research has primarily focused on realizing highly concise observations while neglecting the precise attributes that determine the severity of diseases (e.g., small pleural effusion). Since incorrect attributes will lead to imprecise radiology reports, strengthening the generation process with precise attribute modeling becomes necessary. Additionally, the temporal information contained in the historical records, which is crucial in evaluating a patient's current condition (e.g., heart size is unchanged), has also been largely disregarded. To address these issues, we propose RECAP, which generates precise and accurate radiology reports via dynamic disease progression reasoning. Specifically, RECAP first predicts the observations and progressions (i.e., spatiotemporal information) given two consecutive radiographs. It then combines the historical records, spatiotemporal information, and radiographs for report generation, where a disease progression graph and dynamic progression reasoning mechanism are devised to accurately select the attributes of each observation and progression. Extensive experiments on two publicly available datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our model.

We address the problem of runtime trajectory anomaly detection, a critical capability for enabling trustworthy LLM agents. Current safety measures predominantly focus on static input/output filtering. However, we argue that ensuring LLM agents reliability requires auditing the intermediate execution process. In this work, we formulate the task of Trajectory Anomaly Detection. The goal is not merely detection, but precise error localization. This capability is essential for enabling efficient rollback-and-retry. To achieve this, we construct TrajBench, a dataset synthesized via a perturb-and-complete strategy to cover diverse procedural anomalies. Using this benchmark, we investigate the capability of models in process supervision. We observe that general-purpose LLMs, even with zero-shot prompting, struggle to identify and localize these anomalies. This reveals that generalized capabilities do not automatically translate to process reliability. To address this, we propose TrajAD, a specialized verifier trained with fine-grained process supervision. Our approach outperforms baselines, demonstrating that specialized supervision is essential for building trustworthy agents.

Chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning offers a window into the decision-making of large language models (LLMs), which can be monitored for target behaviors by reading the reasoning trace, motivating work on CoT monitorability. Latent CoT approaches, however, replace the explicit tokens with a small number of continuous states, lowering inference costs but removing the readable trace this monitoring relies on. Monitoring then requires alternative access to the model, such as probing its activations or verbalizing the latent states back into text, but how much monitorability these alternatives preserve is unclear. We study this question with a hint-based intervention setup, a proxy for behaviors where models exploit biasing input cues, e.g., an inadvertently leaked answer or a belief stated by the user, without acknowledging them. Taking hint-reliance as the monitorability target, we compare monitors across reasoning modes, from explicit CoT to weakly- and strongly-supervised latent CoT, on math reasoning and question answering. We find that, in this setup, monitorability depends more on properties of the task (such as whether the correct answer constrains the supporting reasoning) and the level of access to model internals than on the reasoning mode.

Agents can turn shared infrastructure into a channel for coordinated intrusion. The Hugging Face incident and a separate public-wiki investigation show why a security assessment may need evidence from several executions and the artifacts they leave behind. We argue that the operational unit of defence should be a revisable coordination episode linking observed transfers, task authority, and response history. The central research problem is prospective episode discovery: finding which actions belong together before an evaluator supplies their membership. We define unsanctioned coordination relative to collaboration and delegated-authority policy, connect storage-mediated coordination to stigmergy, and specify the evidence needed to distinguish influence from common causes. First-contact signals are one possible input to discovery; the design also follows inherited state and later use. A proposed evaluation compares isolated actions, rolling windows, known groups, and prospectively discovered episodes at matched review cost and false-alert workload. It measures harmful outcomes across all assigned population runs and tests recurrence after channel closure and state quarantine. A checksum-verified reconstruction of the public wiki export separates the decline in retained writes from later administrative cleanup. The contribution is an incident-grounded position, descriptive analysis, and evaluation design. It makes the recommendation to monitor across executions testable without claiming a new detector or a measured containment benefit.

Long-horizon agents depend on context management: systems compress, summarize, and evict old tokens so tasks can continue beyond finite windows. That is safe only when dropped information is no longer needed or has been internalized. Plans are the stress case: they are written early, used for many steps, and first to be evicted. We introduce replay pairing, a diagnostic that runs the same trajectory with and without the plan in history and measures hidden-state cosine distance. On Llama-3.1-70B, plan signal spikes to 0.453 one step after the plan, then falls 4.1x in a single action-observation step; HotpotQA falls 12.4x. This is evidence that standard LLM agents do not carry plans forward as persistent state, and instead depend on the plan remaining in context. A layer-L32 probe detects this decay as a diagnostic, not as proof that it reads plan content itself. Reasoning models add a measurement confound: their `<think>` traces re-derive plan content, so standard stripping leaves plan evidence in the stripped condition. We name this the reasoning-trace confound and fix it with strict stripping, which removes prior `<think>` blocks from the stripped run only. It recovers +163% of the step+1 signal in-sample and +153% held out, while not meaningfully changing non-reasoning Llama (+4.8%). On DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Llama-70B, a Llama-trained probe transfers at AUROC 0.748 (p=6e-4), while R1-specific probes reach 1.000, suggesting R1 encodes plan signal in a different hidden-state direction. Finally, a compression stress test shows the practical cost: naive plan eviction cuts ALFWorld success by 34.7pp, while probe-gated re-surfacing does not recover it. The contribution is a measurement and stress-test framework showing that agent-critical information can be context-resident rather than persistent. Context management is load bearing, but plan protection alone is not enough.

Even though machine learning (ML) pipelines affect an increasing array of stakeholders, there is little work on how input from stakeholders is recorded and incorporated. We propose FeedbackLogs, addenda to existing documentation of ML pipelines, to track the input of multiple stakeholders. Each log records important details about the feedback collection process, the feedback itself, and how the feedback is used to update the ML pipeline. In this paper, we introduce and formalise a process for collecting a FeedbackLog. We also provide concrete use cases where FeedbackLogs can be employed as evidence for algorithmic auditing and as a tool to record updates based on stakeholder feedback.

Recent advances in data collection technology, accompanied by the ever-rising volume and velocity of streaming data, underscore the vital need for time series analytics. In this regard, time-series anomaly detection has been an important activity, entailing various applications in fields such as cyber security, financial markets, law enforcement, and health care. While traditional literature on anomaly detection is centered on statistical measures, the increasing number of machine learning algorithms in recent years call for a structured, general characterization of the research methods for time-series anomaly detection. This survey groups and summarizes anomaly detection existing solutions under a process-centric taxonomy in the time series context. In addition to giving an original categorization of anomaly detection methods, we also perform a meta-analysis of the literature and outline general trends in time-series anomaly detection research.

An industrial process includes many devices, variables, and sub-processes that are physically or electronically interconnected. These interconnections imply some level of correlation between different process variables. Since most of the alarms in a process plant are defined on process variables, alarms are also correlated. However, this can be a nuisance to operators, for one fault might trigger a, sometimes large, number of alarms. So, it is essential to find and correct correlated alarms. In this paper, we study different methods and techniques proposed to measure correlation or similarity between alarms. The similarity indices are first analytically calculated and then studied and compared. The results are also validated using Monte-Carlo simulation.

Monitoring autonomous large language model (LLM) agents for covert malicious behavior is challenging due to delayed, context-dependent, and long-horizon attack patterns. Agents may pursue hidden objectives while maintaining superficially benign behavior, making detection difficult even with full trajectory access. Prior monitoring approaches improve scaffolding or ensemble aggregation, but treat each trajectory independently and do not learn from prior monitoring experience. Moreover, standard reasoning methods explain observed behavior without explicitly reasoning about agent beliefs, intentions, and goal alignment required to distinguish benign task execution from covert deviation. We propose Agent-ToM, a learning-to-monitor framework grounded in Theory-of-Mind (ToM) reasoning for security analysis of autonomous agents. Agent-ToM performs structured full-trajectory analysis by inferring beliefs, intent hypotheses with calibrated confidence, expected actions, and deviations from task-consistent behavioral baselines. At inference time, it employs a Reason-Verify-Refine pipeline to construct and validate monitoring decisions. At training time, Agent-ToM distills critique signals into a persistent semantic guardrail memory, enabling reusable belief- and intent-conditioned constraints across episodes. We evaluate Agent-ToM on adversarial agent monitoring benchmarks (SHADE-Arena and CUA-SHADE-Arena). Agent-ToM achieves strong precision-recall balance and outperforms state-of-the-art monitoring baselines, including ensemble methods, while using a coherent two-call reasoning pipeline. These results demonstrate that learning at the monitoring layer, combined with structured ToM reasoning and verification, provides an effective and deployable foundation for securing autonomous LLM agents.

A wearable assistant should both answer questions about its visual history and recognize when that history is useful to the present situation. Existing video-memory systems primarily support question-conditioned recall, whereas proactive assistants typically use separate memory and control mechanisms. We introduce GROVE, a training-free framework that supports both behaviors with one memory grown causally from a continuous video stream. GROVE retains fine-grained perceptual evidence and incrementally consolidates it into time-stamped moments, coherent episodes, and recurring cross-day patterns. Each stratum is paired with a scale-native retrieval skill for locating an observation, replaying an activity, or traversing long-range regularities. Reactive QA and proactive assistance share this memory and access interface, differing in whether retrieval is initiated by a user query or the current situation. Across multiple benchmarks including the challenging MM-lifelong and EgoServe, GROVE achieves the best results among the compared methods. Controlled ablations show that the temporal strata and their access skills are complementary, with patterns providing the largest benefit when evidence spans multiple days. Code will be available at https://github.com/SitongGong/GROVE.

Despite the emergence of diffusion large language models (D-LLMs) as an alternative to autoregressive large language models (AR-LLMs), safety monitoring for D-LLMs remains largely unexplored. Unlike AR-LLMs, D-LLMs generate text through a multi-step denoising process, exposing intermediate hidden representations that may contain safety-relevant information unavailable in standard single-step monitoring setups. Motivated by the suitability of lightweight probes for always-on monitoring, we analyze which trajectory-level signals best indicate when such probes are likely to struggle. We find that the most informative signal is safety hesitation: intermediate hidden states repeatedly falling within a small margin of the probe's decision boundary. The number of such hesitation steps in D-LLM's trajectory predicts probe failure effectively, providing a proxy of sample difficulty. Building on this analysis, we propose D^2-Monitor, a bi-level safety monitor for D-LLMs. D^2-Monitor adopts a lightweight probe as an always-on monitor to jointly estimate hesitation and perform base classification. When the hesitation level exceeds a threshold, a more expressive but computationally heavier probe is activated. This dynamic routing mechanism allocates monitoring resources efficiently at test time. Evaluated on 3 datasets (WildguardMix, ToxicChat, OpenAI-Moderation) across 4 D-LLMs, D^2-Monitor achieves state-of-the-art performance with a compact parameter footprint (leq 0.85M parameters), and exhibits the best trade-off between effectiveness and efficiency relative to 8 baselines.

Longitudinal clinical notes contain rich evidence of how patients evolve over time, but converting this signal into training supervision for clinical prediction remains challenging. We extend Foresight Learning to clinical prediction by converting time-ordered MIMIC-III notes into examples consisting of past patient context, a natural-language question about a possible future event, and a label resolved from later documentation. This process yields 6,900 prediction examples from 702 admissions across medications, procedures, organ support, microbiology, and mortality. A small LoRA adapter trained on these examples improves over the prompted base model, reducing expected calibration error from 0.1269 to 0.0398 and Brier score from 0.199 to 0.145, while slightly outperforming GPT-5 point estimates on held-out questions. The approach enables reusable clinical prediction supervision from longitudinal notes without hand-engineered structured features or endpoint-specific classifiers.

Temporal information is crucial for visual tracking, but existing multi-frame trackers are vulnerable to model drift caused by naively aggregating noisy historical predictions. In this paper, we introduce DTPTrack, a lightweight and generalizable module designed to be seamlessly integrated into existing trackers to suppress drift. Our framework consists of two core components: (1) a Temporal Reliability Calibrator (TRC) mechanism that learns to assign a per-frame reliability score to historical states, filtering out noise while anchoring on the ground-truth template; and (2) a Temporal Guidance Synthesizer (TGS) module that synthesizes this calibrated history into a compact set of dynamic temporal priors to provide predictive guidance. To demonstrate its versatility, we integrate DTPTrack into three diverse tracking architectures--OSTrack, ODTrack, and LoRAT-and show consistent, significant performance gains across all baselines. Our best-performing model, built upon an extended LoRATv2 backbone, sets a new state-of-the-art on several benchmarks, achieving a 77.5% Success rate on LaSOT and an 80.3% AO on GOT-10k.

LLM-based software engineering agents are increasingly used in real-world development tasks, often with access to sensitive data or security-critical codebases. Such agents could intentionally sabotage these codebases if they were misaligned. We investigate asynchronous monitoring, in which a monitoring system reviews agent actions after the fact. Unlike synchronous monitoring, this approach does not impose runtime latency, while still attempting to disrupt attacks before irreversible harm occurs. We treat monitor development as an adversarial game between a blue team (who design monitors) and a red team (who create sabotaging agents). We attempt to set the game rules such that they upper bound the sabotage potential of an agent based on Claude 4.1 Opus. To ground this game in a realistic, high-stakes deployment scenario, we develop a suite of 5 diverse software engineering environments that simulate tasks that an agent might perform within an AI developer's internal infrastructure. Over the course of the game, we develop an ensemble monitor that achieves a 6% false negative rate at 1% false positive rate on a held out test environment. Then, we estimate risk of sabotage at deployment time by extrapolating from our monitor's false negative rate. We describe one simple model for this extrapolation, present a sensitivity analysis, and describe situations in which the model would be invalid. Code is available at: https://github.com/UKGovernmentBEIS/async-control.

Video generators build long videos by composing shorter parts, either by generating segments one after another or by autoregressively extending chunks. Each new part usually depends on memories of historical observations, such as recent frames, selected key frames, memory banks, or cached features. These memories preserve visible evidence from the past, but current generators do not reliably turn such evidence into a world-state interface: what holds in the video world after previous actions and how it should change under the next prompt. A past frame remains valid history, but it may not describe the state needed by the next segment; some states must instead be inferred from occluded or implicit changes rather than copied from a directly observed frame. This creates a simple but overlooked question for video continuation: given a previous video, its prompt, and a new prompt, can a model generate a continuation that reflects the state determined by both the historical video and the new prompt? To answer this question, we introduce Statebench, a benchmark that targets this gap by testing continuations over three state categories: past-visible states, occluded-process states, and complex-transition states. We further propose Stateagent, which explicitly maintains an entity-state representation, updates it under the new prompt, grounds the predicted post-action state as a future end frame, and renders the next video. Experiments show that our method improves controlled video continuation by raising the all-case state score (SCS-All) from 45.2 to 69.3, and also benefits story generation at the one-minute scale. Code is avaliable at https://github.com/AMAP-ML/StateAgent.

Modern enterprises generate vast streams of time series metrics when monitoring complex systems, known as observability data. Unlike conventional time series from domains such as weather, observability data are zero-inflated, highly stochastic, and exhibit minimal temporal structure. Despite their importance, observability datasets are underrepresented in public benchmarks due to proprietary restrictions. Existing datasets are often anonymized and normalized, removing scale information and limiting their use for tasks beyond forecasting, such as anomaly detection, root-cause analysis, and multi-modal reasoning. To address this gap, we introduce TelecomTS, a large-scale observability dataset derived from a 5G telecommunications network. TelecomTS features heterogeneous, de-anonymized covariates with explicit scale information and supports a suite of downstream tasks, including anomaly detection, root-cause analysis, and a question-answering benchmark requiring multi-modal reasoning. Benchmarking state-of-the-art time series, language, and reasoning models reveals that existing approaches struggle with the abrupt, noisy, and high-variance dynamics of observability data. Our experiments also underscore the importance of preserving covariates' absolute scale, emphasizing the need for foundation time series models that natively leverage scale information for practical observability applications.

We develop and evaluate a data-driven approach for detecting unusual (anomalous) patient-management actions using past patient cases stored in an electronic health record (EHR) system. Our hypothesis is that patient-management actions that are unusual with respect to past patients may be due to a potential error and that it is worthwhile to raise an alert if such a condition is encountered. We evaluate this hypothesis using data obtained from the electronic health records of 4,486 post-cardiac surgical patients. We base the evaluation on the opinions of a panel of experts. The results support that anomaly-based alerting can have reasonably low false alert rates and that stronger anomalies are correlated with higher alert rates.

We present a novel method for measuring the rate of periodic phenomena (e.g., rotation, flicker, and vibration), by an event camera, a device asynchronously reporting brightness changes at independently operating pixels with high temporal resolution. The approach assumes that for a periodic phenomenon, a highly similar set of events is generated within a spatio-temporal window at a time difference corresponding to its period. The sets of similar events are detected by a correlation in the spatio-temporal event stream space. The proposed method, EEPPR, is evaluated on a dataset of 12 sequences of periodic phenomena, i.e. flashing light and vibration, and periodic motion, e.g., rotation, ranging from 3.2 Hz to 2 kHz (equivalent to 192 - 120 000 RPM). EEPPR significantly outperforms published methods on this dataset, achieving a mean relative error of 0.1%, setting new state-of-the-art. The dataset and codes are publicly available on GitHub.

Changepoints are abrupt variations in the generative parameters of a data sequence. Online detection of changepoints is useful in modelling and prediction of time series in application areas such as finance, biometrics, and robotics. While frequentist methods have yielded online filtering and prediction techniques, most Bayesian papers have focused on the retrospective segmentation problem. Here we examine the case where the model parameters before and after the changepoint are independent and we derive an online algorithm for exact inference of the most recent changepoint. We compute the probability distribution of the length of the current ``run,'' or time since the last changepoint, using a simple message-passing algorithm. Our implementation is highly modular so that the algorithm may be applied to a variety of types of data. We illustrate this modularity by demonstrating the algorithm on three different real-world data sets.

Wearable cameras are increasingly used as an observational and interventional tool for human behaviors by providing detailed visual data of hand-related activities. This data can be leveraged to facilitate memory recall for logging of behavior or timely interventions aimed at improving health. However, continuous processing of RGB images from these cameras consumes significant power impacting battery lifetime, generates a large volume of unnecessary video data for post-processing, raises privacy concerns, and requires substantial computational resources for real-time analysis. We introduce THOR, a real-time adaptive spatio-temporal RGB frame sampling method that leverages thermal sensing to capture hand-object patches and classify them in real-time. We use low-resolution thermal camera data to identify moments when a person switches from one hand-related activity to another, and adjust the RGB frame sampling rate by increasing it during activity transitions and reducing it during periods of sustained activity. Additionally, we use the thermal cues from the hand to localize the region of interest (i.e., the hand-object interaction) in each RGB frame, allowing the system to crop and process only the necessary part of the image for activity recognition. We develop a wearable device to validate our method through an in-the-wild study with 14 participants and over 30 activities, and further evaluate it on Ego4D (923 participants across 9 countries, totaling 3,670 hours of video). Our results show that using only 3% of the original RGB video data, our method captures all the activity segments, and achieves hand-related activity recognition F1-score (95%) comparable to using the entire RGB video (94%). Our work provides a more practical path for the longitudinal use of wearable cameras to monitor hand-related activities and health-risk behaviors in real time.

Knowing how to end and resume conversations over time is a natural part of communication, allowing for discussions to span weeks, months, or years. The duration of gaps between conversations dictates which topics are relevant and which questions to ask, and dialogue systems which do not explicitly model time may generate responses that are unnatural. In this work we explore the idea of making dialogue models aware of time, and present GapChat, a multi-session dialogue dataset in which the time between each session varies. While the dataset is constructed in real-time, progress on events in speakers' lives is simulated in order to create realistic dialogues occurring across a long timespan. We expose time information to the model and compare different representations of time and event progress. In human evaluation we show that time-aware models perform better in metrics that judge the relevance of the chosen topics and the information gained from the conversation.

Regulatory compliance auditing across diverse industrial domains requires heightened quality assurance and traceability. Present manual and intermittent approaches to such auditing yield significant challenges, potentially leading to oversights in the monitoring process. To address these issues, we introduce a real-time, multi-modal sensing system employing 3D time-of-flight and RGB cameras, coupled with unsupervised learning techniques on edge AI devices. This enables continuous object tracking thereby enhancing efficiency in record-keeping and minimizing manual interventions. While we validate the system in a knife sanitization context within agrifood facilities, emphasizing its prowess against occlusion and low-light issues with RGB cameras, its potential spans various industrial monitoring settings.

Accurately assessing dietary behavior change receptivity is essential for designing effective just-in-time adaptive interventions (JITAIs) that promote healthier eating habits. However, self-report-based assessment of behavior change receptivity is sparse and delayed, limiting its practical use in continuous monitoring. To explore whether passive sensing may help address this challenge, this study conducts a pilot investigation of inferring participants' self-reported behavior change receptivity from egocentric eating images collected by a wearable camera. We use pilot data obtained from free-living eating episodes using the Automatic Ingestion Monitor v2 (AIM-2). The data included egocentric image sequences captured during eating and paired with responses to questions assessing specific dimensions of behavior change receptivity (awareness, interaction capability, and motivation). To examine whether visual information contained any relevancy to these responses, we evaluated a transfer-learning-assisted framework that combines a pre-trained Contrastive Language-Image Pre-Training (CLIP) vision encoder with a lightweight transformer classifier. The model processes eating episode image sequences to extract potential semantic and temporal cues related to behavior change receptivity. Preliminary experimental results show promising improvements over simple baseline models for behavior change receptivity indicators. These early findings suggest that egocentric eating episode images may contain cues related to dietary behavior change receptivity, and warrant further investigation with larger and more comprehensive datasets.

Data drift is the change in model input data that is one of the key factors leading to machine learning models performance degradation over time. Monitoring drift helps detecting these issues and preventing their harmful consequences. Meaningful drift interpretation is a fundamental step towards effective re-training of the model. In this study we propose an end-to-end framework for reliable model-agnostic change-point detection and interpretation in large task-oriented dialog systems, proven effective in multiple customer deployments. We evaluate our approach and demonstrate its benefits with a novel variant of intent classification training dataset, simulating customer requests to a dialog system. We make the data publicly available.

Replay methods have shown to be successful in mitigating catastrophic forgetting in continual learning scenarios despite having limited access to historical data. However, storing historical data is cheap in many real-world applications, yet replaying all historical data would be prohibited due to processing time constraints. In such settings, we propose learning the time to learn for a continual learning system, in which we learn replay schedules over which tasks to replay at different time steps. To demonstrate the importance of learning the time to learn, we first use Monte Carlo tree search to find the proper replay schedule and show that it can outperform fixed scheduling policies in terms of continual learning performance. Moreover, to improve the scheduling efficiency itself, we propose to use reinforcement learning to learn the replay scheduling policies that can generalize to new continual learning scenarios without added computational cost. In our experiments, we show the advantages of learning the time to learn, which brings current continual learning research closer to real-world needs.

We propose an algorithm for change point monitoring in linear causal models that accounts for interventions. Through a special centralization technique, we can concentrate the changes arising from causal propagation across nodes into a single dimension. Additionally, by selecting appropriate intervention nodes based on Kullback-Leibler divergence, we can amplify the change magnitude. We also present an algorithm for selecting the intervention values, which aids in the identification of the most effective intervention nodes. Two monitoring methods are proposed, each with an adaptive intervention policy to make a balance between exploration and exploitation. We theoretically demonstrate the first-order optimality of the proposed methods and validate their properties using simulation datasets and two real-world case studies.

We study the right to be forgotten (GDPR Art. 17) for large language models and frame unlearning as a reproducible systems problem. Our approach treats training as a deterministic program and logs a minimal per-microbatch record (ordered ID hash, RNG seed, learning-rate value, optimizer-step counter, and accumulation boundary). Under a pinned stack and deterministic kernels, replaying the training tail while filtering only the forget closure yields the same parameters as training on the retain set (bit-identical in the training dtype) when preconditions hold. To meet latency and availability constraints, we add complementary paths: (i) exact reverts of recent steps via micro-checkpoints or dense per-step deltas, (ii) cohort-scoped adapter deletion when the base is frozen, and (iii) a curvature-guided anti-update followed by a short retain-tune, audit-gated with escalation to exact replay. We report storage/latency budgets and a toy artifact validating mechanics; in a controlled run that satisfies the preconditions we demonstrate byte-identical equality of model and optimizer states.

In medical imaging, the clinical value of Computed Tomography (CT) lies not only in depicting current disease status, but crucially in enabling longitudinal comparison of serial scans to determine disease evolution, a process that underpins response assessment, recurrence detection, and ongoing patient management. Yet, despite this central role of temporal comparison in clinical decision-making, existing medical foundation models remain largely confined to single-study understanding, leaving temporally grounded cross-examination insufficiently addressed. To address this gap, we study longitudinal imaging difference reporting, a task in which a model takes two temporally separated scans from the same patient and generates a clinically meaningful report describing interval changes between them. We introduce CT-ΔBench, a dedicated benchmark for this task with patient-level splitting to prevent information leakage. To better evaluate this task beyond surface-level text similarity, we further develop change-aware metrics specifically designed to capture clinically meaningful longitudinal changes, and conduct an independent physician validation to assess the reliability of the synthesized references and event extraction pipeline. We also compare direct paired-CT reasoning with an indirect two-stage pipeline that first generates single-timepoint reports and then performs textual differencing. Finally, we propose DeltaMed, a baseline model for direct paired-CT difference reporting, and train it on the benchmark training set. Together, these contributions lay the groundwork for temporally aware medical foundation models that better reflect real-world longitudinal clinical reasoning.

Understanding memorisation in language models has practical and societal implications, e.g., studying models' training dynamics or preventing copyright infringements. Prior work defines memorisation as the causal effect of training with an instance on the model's ability to predict that instance. This definition relies on a counterfactual: the ability to observe what would have happened had the model not seen that instance. Existing methods struggle to provide computationally efficient and accurate estimates of this counterfactual. Further, they often estimate memorisation for a model architecture rather than for a specific model instance. This paper fills an important gap in the literature, proposing a new, principled, and efficient method to estimate memorisation based on the difference-in-differences design from econometrics. Using this method, we characterise a model's memorisation profile--its memorisation trends across training--by only observing its behaviour on a small set of instances throughout training. In experiments with the Pythia model suite, we find that memorisation (i) is stronger and more persistent in larger models, (ii) is determined by data order and learning rate, and (iii) has stable trends across model sizes, thus making memorisation in larger models predictable from smaller ones.

Monitoring is an important aspect of safely deploying Large Language Models (LLMs). This paper examines activation probes for detecting ``high-stakes'' interactions -- where the text indicates that the interaction might lead to significant harm -- as a critical, yet underexplored, target for such monitoring. We evaluate several probe architectures trained on synthetic data, and find them to exhibit robust generalization to diverse, out-of-distribution, real-world data. Probes' performance is comparable to that of prompted or finetuned medium-sized LLM monitors, while offering computational savings of six orders-of-magnitude. These savings are enabled by reusing activations of the model that is being monitored. Our experiments also highlight the potential of building resource-aware hierarchical monitoring systems, where probes serve as an efficient initial filter and flag cases for more expensive downstream analysis. We release our novel synthetic dataset and the codebase at https://github.com/arrrlex/models-under-pressure.

Catastrophic regime shifts in complex natural systems may be averted through advanced detection. Recent work has provided a proof-of-principle that many systems approaching a catastrophic transition may be identified through the lens of early warning indicators such as rising variance or increased return times. Despite widespread appreciation of the difficulties and uncertainty involved in such forecasts, proposed methods hardly ever characterize their expected error rates. Without the benefits of replicates, controls, or hindsight, applications of these approaches must quantify how reliable different indicators are in avoiding false alarms, and how sensitive they are to missing subtle warning signs. We propose a model based approach in order to quantify this trade-off between reliability and sensitivity and allow comparisons between different indicators. We show these error rates can be quite severe for common indicators even under favorable assumptions, and also illustrate how a model-based indicator can improve this performance. We demonstrate how the performance of an early warning indicator varies in different data sets, and suggest that uncertainty quantification become a more central part of early warning predictions.

Complex tasks are increasingly delegated to ensembles of specialized LLM-based agents that reason, communicate, and coordinate actions-both among themselves and through interactions with external tools, APIs, and databases. While persistent memory has been shown to enhance single-agent performance, most approaches assume a monolithic, single-user context-overlooking the benefits and challenges of knowledge transfer across users under dynamic, asymmetric permissions. We introduce Collaborative Memory, a framework for multi-user, multi-agent environments with asymmetric, time-evolving access controls encoded as bipartite graphs linking users, agents, and resources. Our system maintains two memory tiers: (1) private memory-private fragments visible only to their originating user; and (2) shared memory-selectively shared fragments. Each fragment carries immutable provenance attributes (contributing agents, accessed resources, and timestamps) to support retrospective permission checks. Granular read policies enforce current user-agent-resource constraints and project existing memory fragments into filtered transformed views. Write policies determine fragment retention and sharing, applying context-aware transformations to update the memory. Both policies may be designed conditioned on system, agent, and user-level information. Our framework enables safe, efficient, and interpretable cross-user knowledge sharing, with provable adherence to asymmetric, time-varying policies and full auditability of memory operations.

Long-lived AI agents are increasingly deployed as persistent operational systems, yet they are still evaluated like freshly initialized models. Day-one benchmarks miss a basic systems question: how long does an agent remain reliable after deployment? Even when model weights are frozen, an agent's effective state keeps changing as it compresses interaction history, retrieves from a growing memory store, revises facts after updates, and undergoes routine maintenance. Reliability therefore becomes a lifespan property of the full agent harness, not only a snapshot property of the base model. We introduce AgingBench, a longitudinal reliability benchmark for agent lifespan engineering: measuring not only whether deployed agents degrade, but what form the degradation takes and where repair should target. AgingBench organizes agent aging into four mechanisms: compression aging, interference aging, revision aging, and maintenance aging. To diagnose these failures, AgingBench uses temporal dependency graphs and paired counterfactual probes that produce diagnostic profiles for the write, retrieval, and utilization stages of the memory pipeline. Across 7 scenarios, 14 models, multiple memory policies, and both runner-controlled and autonomous agents, over ~400 runs spanning 8 - 200 sessions show that agent aging is not one-dimensional: behavioral tests can remain clean while factual precision decays; derived-state tracking can collapse sharply within a single model; and the same wrong answer can require different repairs depending on what the diagnostic profile points to. These results suggest that reliable agent deployment requires lifespan evaluation, mechanism-level diagnosis, and stage-targeted repair, not only stronger day-one models.

Real-world video benchmarks provide broad coverage, but their fixed clips entangle event count, rate, duration, and visual complexity, making failure modes hard to isolate. While existing programmatic benchmarks offer better control, they score only the final answer rather than auditing reported events against executable ground truth. To bridge this gap, we introduce trace-grounded parametric profiling for event counting in three controlled video tasks: bouncing-ball wall contacts, visual blinks, and categorical state transitions. Across 2,190 videos, we vary event count N and frequency F while holding rendering fixed. Each video includes an executable event trace for capability-surface estimation and timestamp-level evaluation. Our results reveal a staged temporal failure. At an 80% reliability threshold, Gemini 3.6 Flash reliably counts persistent state transitions up to 12 events at 0.5 and 1.0 Hz, yet demonstrates no reliable positive-count region for transient blinking events. Thus, event representation dictates whether a model initially accesses evidence -- a limitation that compounds as count and frequency increase. In the high-count, high-frequency regime, only 0.2% of final counts are correct and the model recovers just 18.1% of true events. To test if visual access is the primary bottleneck, we increase sampling rate. Although this boosts Bounce Ball accuracy from 19.6% to 29.3%, the reported sequence agrees with ground truth only 3.7% of the time. Extra frames can therefore inflate final scores without producing faithful event recovery. Different prompting strategies yield similarly limited gains, and real-world video evaluations show the same concentration of success at low event counts. Ultimately, trace-grounded profiling shifts video evaluation from aggregate accuracy metrics to a detailed diagnostic of where temporal reasoning fails.

Machine learning (ML) holds great potential for accurately forecasting treatment outcomes over time, which could ultimately enable the adoption of more individualized treatment strategies in many practical applications. However, a significant challenge that has been largely overlooked by the ML literature on this topic is the presence of informative sampling in observational data. When instances are observed irregularly over time, sampling times are typically not random, but rather informative -- depending on the instance's characteristics, past outcomes, and administered treatments. In this work, we formalize informative sampling as a covariate shift problem and show that it can prohibit accurate estimation of treatment outcomes if not properly accounted for. To overcome this challenge, we present a general framework for learning treatment outcomes in the presence of informative sampling using inverse intensity-weighting, and propose a novel method, TESAR-CDE, that instantiates this framework using Neural CDEs. Using a simulation environment based on a clinical use case, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in learning under informative sampling.

The continuous flow of data collected by Internet of Things (IoT) devices, has revolutionised our ability to understand and interact with the world across various applications. However, this data must be prepared and transformed into event data before analysis can begin. In this paper, we shed light on the potential of leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs) in event abstraction and integration. Our approach aims to create event records from raw sensor readings and merge the logs from multiple IoT sources into a single event log suitable for further Process Mining applications. We demonstrate the capabilities of LLMs in event abstraction considering a case study for IoT application in elderly care and longitudinal health monitoring. The results, showing on average an accuracy of 90% in detecting high-level activities. These results highlight LLMs' promising potential in addressing event abstraction and integration challenges, effectively bridging the existing gap.

Large language models (LLMs) have significantly impacted many aspects of our lives. However, assessing and ensuring their chronological knowledge remains challenging. Existing approaches fall short in addressing the accumulative nature of knowledge, often relying on a single time stamp. To overcome this, we introduce ChroKnowBench, a benchmark dataset designed to evaluate chronologically accumulated knowledge across three key aspects: multiple domains, time dependency, temporal state. Our benchmark distinguishes between knowledge that evolves (e.g., scientific discoveries, amended laws) and knowledge that remain constant (e.g., mathematical truths, commonsense facts). Building on this benchmark, we present ChroKnowledge (Chronological Categorization of Knowledge), a novel sampling-based framework for evaluating and updating LLMs' non-parametric chronological knowledge. Our evaluation shows: (1) The ability of eliciting temporal knowledge varies depending on the data format that model was trained on. (2) LLMs partially recall knowledge or show a cut-off at temporal boundaries rather than recalling all aspects of knowledge correctly. Thus, we apply our ChroKnowPrompt, an in-depth prompting to elicit chronological knowledge by traversing step-by-step through the surrounding time spans. We observe that our framework successfully updates the overall knowledge across the entire timeline in both the biomedical domain (+11.9%) and the general domain (+2.8%), demonstrating its effectiveness in refining temporal knowledge. This non-parametric approach also enables knowledge updates not only in open-source models but also in proprietary LLMs, ensuring comprehensive applicability across model types. We perform a comprehensive analysis based on temporal characteristics of ChroKnowPrompt and validate the potential of various models to elicit intrinsic temporal knowledge through our method.

The usage of deep neural networks in safety-critical systems is limited by our ability to guarantee their correct behavior. Runtime monitors are components aiming to identify unsafe predictions and discard them before they can lead to catastrophic consequences. Several recent works on runtime monitoring have focused on out-of-distribution (OOD) detection, i.e., identifying inputs that are different from the training data. In this work, we argue that OOD detection is not a well-suited framework to design efficient runtime monitors and that it is more relevant to evaluate monitors based on their ability to discard incorrect predictions. We call this setting out-ofmodel-scope detection and discuss the conceptual differences with OOD. We also conduct extensive experiments on popular datasets from the literature to show that studying monitors in the OOD setting can be misleading: 1. very good OOD results can give a false impression of safety, 2. comparison under the OOD setting does not allow identifying the best monitor to detect errors. Finally, we also show that removing erroneous training data samples helps to train better monitors.

Understanding the dynamic behavior of computer programs during normal working conditions is an important task, which has multiple security benefits such as the development of behavior-based anomaly detection, vulnerability discovery, and patching. Existing works achieved this goal by collecting and analyzing various data including network traffic, system calls, instruction traces, etc. In this paper, we explore the use of a new type of data, performance counters, to analyze the dynamic behavior of programs. Using existing primitives, we develop a tool named perfextract to capture data from different performance counters for a program during its startup time, thus forming multiple time series to represent the dynamic behavior of the program. We analyze the collected data and develop a semi-supervised clustering algorithm that allows us to classify each program using its performance counter time series into a specific group and to identify the intrinsic behavior of that group. We carry out extensive experiments with 18 real-world programs that belong to 4 groups including web browsers, text editors, image viewers, and audio players. The experimental results show that the examined programs can be accurately differentiated based on their performance counter data regardless of whether programs are run in physical or virtual environments.

Conventional surveillance systems for monitoring infectious diseases, such as influenza, face challenges due to shortage of skilled healthcare professionals, remoteness of communities and absence of communication infrastructures. Internet-based approaches for surveillance are appealing logistically as well as economically. Search engine queries and Twitter have been the primarily used data sources in such approaches. The aim of this study is to assess the predictive power of an alternative data source, Instagram. By using 317 weeks of publicly available data from Instagram, we trained several machine learning algorithms to both nowcast and forecast the number of official influenza-like illness incidents in Finland where population-wide official statistics about the weekly incidents are available. In addition to date and hashtag count features of online posts, we were able to utilize also the visual content of the posted images with the help of deep convolutional neural networks. Our best nowcasting model reached a mean absolute error of 11.33 incidents per week and a correlation coefficient of 0.963 on the test data. Forecasting models for predicting 1 week and 2 weeks ahead showed statistical significance as well by reaching correlation coefficients of 0.903 and 0.862, respectively. This study demonstrates how social media and in particular, digital photographs shared in them, can be a valuable source of information for the field of infodemiology.

Intensive care units (ICU) generate long, dense and evolving streams of clinical information, where physicians must repeatedly reassess patient states under time pressure, underscoring a clear need for reliable AI decision support. Existing ICU benchmarks typically treat historical clinician actions as ground truth. However, these actions are made under incomplete information and limited temporal context of the underlying patient state, and may therefore be suboptimal, making it difficult to assess the true reasoning capabilities of AI systems. We introduce RealICU, a hindsight-annotated benchmark for evaluating large language models (LLMs) under realistic ICU conditions, where labels are created after senior physicians review the full patient trajectory. We formulate four physician-motivated tasks: assess Patient Status, Acute Problems, Recommended Actions, and Red Flag actions that risk unsafe outcomes. We partition each trajectory with 30-min windows and release two datasets: RealICU-Gold with 930-window annotations from 94 MIMIC-IV patients, and RealICU-Scale with 11,862 windows extended by Oracle, a physician-validated LLM hindsight labeler. Existing LLMs including memory-augmented ones performed poorly on RealICU, exposing two failure modes: a recall-safety tradeoff for clinical recommendations, and an anchoring bias to early interpretations of the patient. We further introduce ICU-Evo to study structured-memory agents that improves long-horizon reasoning but does not fully eliminate safety failures. Together, RealICU provides a clinically grounded testbed for measuring and improving AI sequential decision-support in high-stakes care. Project page: https://chengzhi-leo.github.io/RealICU-Bench/

To help accelerate progress in multi-target, multi-camera tracking systems, we present (i) a new pair of precision-recall measures of performance that treats errors of all types uniformly and emphasizes correct identification over sources of error; (ii) the largest fully-annotated and calibrated data set to date with more than 2 million frames of 1080p, 60fps video taken by 8 cameras observing more than 2,700 identities over 85 minutes; and (iii) a reference software system as a comparison baseline. We show that (i) our measures properly account for bottom-line identity match performance in the multi-camera setting; (ii) our data set poses realistic challenges to current trackers; and (iii) the performance of our system is comparable to the state of the art.

Counterfactual Risk Minimization (CRM) is a framework for dealing with the logged bandit feedback problem, where the goal is to improve a logging policy using offline data. In this paper, we explore the case where it is possible to deploy learned policies multiple times and acquire new data. We extend the CRM principle and its theory to this scenario, which we call "Sequential Counterfactual Risk Minimization (SCRM)." We introduce a novel counterfactual estimator and identify conditions that can improve the performance of CRM in terms of excess risk and regret rates, by using an analysis similar to restart strategies in accelerated optimization methods. We also provide an empirical evaluation of our method in both discrete and continuous action settings, and demonstrate the benefits of multiple deployments of CRM.

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) introduce new opportunities for safety monitoring through their Chain of Thought (CoT) reasoning. However, CoT is not always faithful to the model's final output, undermining its reliability as a monitoring tool. To address this, we investigate the hidden representations of LRMs to determine whether future behavior can be predicted from prompt and CoT representations. By evaluating a probe at each generated token, we construct a probe trajectory, the continuous evolution of a concept's probability across the reasoning process. We find that future model behavior is more distinguishable when examined over the full trajectory than from a single static prediction. To characterize these temporal dynamics, we extract signal-processing features that capture volatility, trend, and steady-state behavior, significantly improving the separation of future model states. We also present two methodological insights. First, template-based training data achieves near-parity with dynamically generated model responses, eliminating the need for a costly initial inference and labeling. Second, the choice of pooling operation is critical: average-pooling and last-token methods collapse to near-random performance, while max-pooling achieves up to 95% AUROC and yields stable probe trajectories. Using four datasets and four reasoning models across the domains of safety and mathematics, we demonstrate that trajectory features encode task-specific dynamics that improve outcome separability. These findings establish probe trajectories as a complementary framework for monitoring LRM behavior. Warning: This article contains potentially harmful content.

Between the first visible sign of danger and the moment an accident occurs, there is often a window where intervention remains possible. Video-capable multimodal large language models (MLLMs) could serve as always-on safety monitors that issue warnings during this window. Yet current benchmarks do not test this ability: they rely on static inputs, ignore timing precision, and omit false-positive measurement on safe scenes. We present PaSBench-Video, a 740-video benchmark with 481 risk and 259 no-risk videos across four domains: driving, healthcare, daily life, and industrial production. Risk videos are annotated with frame-level risk onset and accident boundaries. A model must observe the video causally and produce a warning that is both temporally calibrated and content-correct. Testing 13 MLLMs, we find that no model exceeds 20.0% on our strictest metric, and recall is tightly coupled with false-positive rate, with Pearson correlation 0.64: higher detection comes only at the cost of triggering warnings on the majority of safe clips. Performance splits sharply by domain: models achieve moderate recall at low false-positive rates in daily life, where risks are inherently anomalous, yet fire indiscriminately in driving, where routine and hazardous scenes look alike. These results indicate that current models rely on scene-level activity cues rather than reasoning about emerging harm.

Risk decision systems in fraud detection and credit scoring operate under structural label absence: ground truth arrives weeks to months after decisions are made. During this blind period, model performance may degrade silently, eroding the governance evidence that justifies automated decisions. Existing drift detection methods either require labels (supervised detectors) or detect statistical change without distinguishing harmful degradation from benign distributional evolution (unsupervised detectors). No existing framework integrates drift detection with governance evidence assessment and operational response. This paper presents a label-free governance monitoring extension to the Governance Drift Toolkit that produces governance alerts rather than statistical alarms. The monitoring architecture applies composite multi-proxy monitoring across four proxy monitors (score distribution, feature drift, prediction entropy, confidence distribution), with governance-calibrated thresholds. Empirical evaluation on the Lending Club credit scoring dataset (1.37M loans, 11 years) demonstrates three findings. First, raw proxy metrics (Feature PSI delta up to 1.84, Score PSI delta up to 0.92) distinguish injected covariate degradation from natural temporal drift in an offline evaluation setting. Second, pure concept drift in P(Y|X) produces exactly zero delta across all proxy metrics in all windows, confirming the irreducible blind spot of label-free monitoring as a structural verification. Third, the composite score provides monotonic severity progression as more monitors trigger (0.583 to 0.833 to 1.000), enabling graduated governance response. Cross-domain comparison with IEEE-CIS fraud detection results shows the detectable/undetectable boundary is consistent across both domains. The toolkit and evaluation code are available as open-source artifacts.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in multi-turn dialogue settings, but their behavior is still bottlenecked by fixed context windows and naive memory strategies. Replaying the full conversation at every turn is simple but expensive, while static summarization or recency-only heuristics often erase safety-critical user details. We present Adaptive Focus Memory (AFM), a dynamic context manager that assigns each past message one of three fidelity levels -- FULL, COMPRESSED, or PLACEHOLDER -- based on semantic similarity to the current query, half-life recency weighting, and importance classification. AFM packs messages chronologically under a strict token budget, preferring high fidelity for the most relevant turns while aiming to preserve a cheap trace of the dialogue. In a safety-oriented benchmark involving a user with a severe peanut allergy planning a trip to Thailand, AFM retains the allergy across both short and medium-length conversations, matches the safety performance of naive replay, and cuts average token usage by 66% relative to a replay baseline. We release a modular Python implementation of AFM designed for OpenAI-compatible APIs and offline operation, enabling practitioners to reduce inference cost without sacrificing safety or factual continuity in the evaluated scenario.

As spacecraft send back increasing amounts of telemetry data, improved anomaly detection systems are needed to lessen the monitoring burden placed on operations engineers and reduce operational risk. Current spacecraft monitoring systems only target a subset of anomaly types and often require costly expert knowledge to develop and maintain due to challenges involving scale and complexity. We demonstrate the effectiveness of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTMs) networks, a type of Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), in overcoming these issues using expert-labeled telemetry anomaly data from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite and the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) rover, Curiosity. We also propose a complementary unsupervised and nonparametric anomaly thresholding approach developed during a pilot implementation of an anomaly detection system for SMAP, and offer false positive mitigation strategies along with other key improvements and lessons learned during development.

We develop and evaluate a data-driven approach for detecting unusual (anomalous) patient-management decisions using past patient cases stored in electronic health records (EHRs). Our hypothesis is that a patient-management decision that is unusual with respect to past patient care may be due to an error and that it is worthwhile to generate an alert if such a decision is encountered. We evaluate this hypothesis using data obtained from EHRs of 4486 post-cardiac surgical patients and a subset of 222 alerts generated from the data. We base the evaluation on the opinions of a panel of experts. The results of the study support our hypothesis that the outlier-based alerting can lead to promising true alert rates. We observed true alert rates that ranged from 25\% to 66\% for a variety of patient-management actions, with 66\% corresponding to the strongest outliers.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown strong promise for mining Electronic Health Records (EHRs) by reasoning over longitudinal clinical information to capture context-rich patient trajectories. However, leveraging LLMs for structured EHRs (e.g., standardized diagnosis and medication codes) presents two key challenges. First, translating time-stamped EHR sequences into plain text can obscure both temporal structure and code identities, weakening the ability to capture code co-occurrence and longitudinal regularities. Second, unlike cohort-trained predictive models that learn a shared, task-aligned representation space across patients, LLMs are often applied in a case-isolated inference setting where each patient is processed independently without leveraging population-level patterns. To address these challenges, we introduce RePrompT, a time-aware LLM framework that integrates structured EHR encoders through prompt tuning, without modifying underlying architectures. Specifically, RePrompT recurrently incorporates latent states from prior visits to preserve longitudinal information, and injects population-level information through trainable prompt tokens derived from a cohort-trained, task-aligned EHR encoder. Experiments on MIMIC-III and MIMIC-IV demonstrate that RePrompT consistently outperforms both EHR-based and LLM-based baselines across multiple clinical prediction tasks.

Data Drift is the phenomenon where the generating model behind the data changes over time. Due to data drift, any model built on the past training data becomes less relevant and inaccurate over time. Thus, detecting and controlling for data drift is critical in machine learning models. Hierarchical Temporal Memory (HTM) is a machine learning model developed by Jeff Hawkins, inspired by how the human brain processes information. It is a biologically inspired model of memory that is similar in structure to the neocortex, and whose performance is claimed to be comparable to state of the art models in detecting anomalies in time series data. Another unique benefit of HTMs is its independence from training and testing cycle; all the learning takes place online with streaming data and no separate training and testing cycle is required. In sequential learning paradigm, Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT) offers some unique benefit for online learning and inference. This paper proposes a novel hybrid framework combining HTM and SPRT for real-time data drift detection and anomaly identification. Unlike existing data drift methods, our approach eliminates frequent retraining and ensures low false positive rates. HTMs currently work with one dimensional or univariate data. In a second study, we also propose an application of HTM in multidimensional supervised scenario for anomaly detection by combining the outputs of multiple HTM columns, one for each dimension of the data, through a neural network. Experimental evaluations demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms conventional drift detection techniques like the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test, Wasserstein distance, and Population Stability Index (PSI) in terms of accuracy, adaptability, and computational efficiency. Our experiments also provide insights into optimizing hyperparameters for real-time deployment in domains such as Telecom.

We develop graph-based methods for semi-supervised learning based on label propagation on a data similarity graph. When data is abundant or arrive in a stream, the problems of computation and data storage arise for any graph-based method. We propose a fast approximate online algorithm that solves for the harmonic solution on an approximate graph. We show, both empirically and theoretically, that good behavior can be achieved by collapsing nearby points into a set of local representative points that minimize distortion. Moreover, we regularize the harmonic solution to achieve better stability properties. We also present graph-based methods for detecting conditional anomalies and apply them to the identification of unusual clinical actions in hospitals. Our hypothesis is that patient-management actions that are unusual with respect to the past patients may be due to errors and that it is worthwhile to raise an alert if such a condition is encountered. Conditional anomaly detection extends standard unconditional anomaly framework but also faces new problems known as fringe and isolated points. We devise novel nonparametric graph-based methods to tackle these problems. Our methods rely on graph connectivity analysis and soft harmonic solution. Finally, we conduct an extensive human evaluation study of our conditional anomaly methods by 15 experts in critical care.

Electronic Health Records (EHRs) contain rich temporal dynamics that conventional encoding approaches fail to adequately capture. While Large Language Models (LLMs) show promise for EHR modeling, they struggle to reason about sequential clinical events and temporal dependencies. We propose Next Event Prediction (NEP), a framework that enhances LLMs' temporal reasoning through autoregressive fine-tuning on clinical event sequences. By reformulating EHRs as timestamped event chains and predicting future medical events, NEP explicitly models disease progression patterns and causal relationships. Extensive evaluations across oncology survival prediction and clinical diagnosis tasks demonstrate NEP's superiority, outperforming specialized EHR models by 4.6% AUROC and general-purpose LLMs by 7.2% C-index in temporal reasoning tasks. Our analyses reveal dual benefits: state-of-the-art prediction accuracy combined with clinically interpretable attention patterns that align with known disease pathways.

Modern web dashboards and enterprise applications increasingly rely on complex, distributed microservices architectures. While these architectures offer scalability, they introduce significant challenges in debugging and observability. When failures occur, they often manifest as opaque error messages to the end-user such as Something went wrong. This masks the underlying root cause which may reside in browser side exceptions, API contract violations, or server side logic failures. Existing monitoring tools capture these events in isolation but fail to correlate them effectively or provide intelligible explanations to non technical users. This paper proposes a novel system for Automated Multi Source Debugging and Natural Language Error Explanation. The proposed framework automatically collects and correlates error data from disparate sources such as browser, API, server logs and validates API contracts in real time, and utilizes Large Language Models to generate natural language explanations. This approach significantly reduces Mean Time to Resolution for support engineers and improves the user experience by transforming cryptic error codes into actionable insights.

Users of modern platforms repeatedly need summaries of recent dialogue, but the window rarely contains enough context to be interpreted on its own. We formalize this setting as streaming dialogue summarization, where a system must summarize a current window using selective memory from an unbounded history under a fixed budget. We show that the central challenge is not how much history is accessed, but whether memory recovers the evidence that the current window presupposes. We construct a benchmark and evaluation protocol that separately assesses whether memory contains gap-resolving evidence and whether the generated summary reflects it. We propose ReMEMBER, a missing-evidence memory framework that conditions retrieval on unresolved window dependencies and refines retrieved chunks into evidence-dense memory under a fixed budget. Experiments on dialogues with histories up to 160K tokens show that ReMEMBER improves memory recall and gap-resolution completeness over memory construction baselines under the same budget.

A significant number of traffic crashes are secondary crashes that occur because of an earlier incident on the road. Thus, early detection of traffic incidents is crucial for road users from safety perspectives with a potential to reduce the risk of secondary crashes. The wide availability of GPS devices now-a-days gives an opportunity of tracking and recording vehicle trajectories. The objective of this study is to use vehicle trajectory data for advance real-time detection of traffic incidents on highways using machine learning-based algorithms. The study uses three days of unevenly sequenced vehicle trajectory data and traffic incident data on I-10, one of the most crash-prone highways in Louisiana. Vehicle trajectories are converted to trajectories based on virtual detector locations to maintain spatial uniformity as well as to generate historical traffic data for machine learning algorithms. Trips matched with traffic incidents on the way are separated and along with other trips with similar spatial attributes are used to build a database for modeling. Multiple machine learning algorithms such as Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Extreme Gradient Boost, and Artificial Neural Network models are used to detect a trajectory that is likely to face an incident in the downstream road section. Results suggest that the Random Forest model achieves the best performance for predicting an incident with reasonable recall value and discrimination capability.

Machine learning techniques are effective for building predictive models because they identify patterns in large datasets. Development of a model for complex real-life problems often stop at the point of publication, proof of concept or when made accessible through some mode of deployment. However, a model in the medical domain risks becoming obsolete as patient demographics, systems and clinical practices change. The maintenance and monitoring of predictive model performance post-publication is crucial to enable their safe and effective long-term use. We will assess the infrastructure required to monitor the outputs of a machine learning algorithm, and present two scenarios with examples of monitoring and updates of models, firstly on a breast cancer prognosis model trained on public longitudinal data, and secondly on a neurodegenerative stratification algorithm that is currently being developed and tested in clinic.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in long interactions, existing evaluations focus predominantly on retrospective memory (RM) via explicit queries. Prospective memory (PM), the critical ability to spontaneously recall and act on latent constraints without direct prompts, remains largely unevaluated. We introduce TriggerBench, a comprehensive PM benchmark spanning five dimensions across both daily assistants and professional workflows. TriggerBench pairs scenarios with matched RM controls, contrastive positive/negative variants, and overloaded triggers, enabling fine-grained measurement of proactive recall, false-alarm rate, and attentional robustness under a single protocol. Our evaluation yields three key findings. (i) PM shows a precision-recall trade-off and attentional fragility. Though enhanced reasoning significantly improves proactive recall, models may overfit to an "always-remind" heuristic. Furthermore, PM accuracy degrades substantially under implicit constraints or triggers overloaded by concurrent user requests, indicating that robust PM remains an open challenge. (ii) PM is notably harder than RM: on identical contexts, RM near-saturates up to 100K tokens, while PM decays sharply as context length scales. (iii) PM may serve as a behavioral probe of spare reasoning capacity. Pairing PM scenarios with AIME-2025 math problems reveals that successful trajectories yield higher PM accuracy than failed ones at the same context length, showing PM tracks spare reasoning budget that token count obscures. Project page: https://github.com/KristenZHANG/TriggerBench-Official.

Coding agents often finish a session by returning one squashed patch that mixes feature implementation, bug fixes, refactorings, tests, and configuration edits. While the final code may be correct, collapsing unrelated edits into one patch removes the history structure needed for review, selective revert, and later maintenance. We study retrospective commit-history reconstruction: given a completed squashed change, an agent groups its hunks into commits and materializes a replayable commit sequence. We formalize the task as hunk-to-commit partitioning with a replay requirement and build AtomicCommitBench, containing 800 real consecutive-commit episodes from 10 Python projects. Because multiple decompositions may be reasonable, we evaluate outputs using complementary metrics: PPAR for replay validity, ARI for reference-based grouping quality, and TCR for failure containment on scoreable modified-test episodes. Natural retrospective reconstruction proves substantially harder than replay checking or synthetic tangling. Although nearly all non-random methods achieve replay validity (PPAR >= 0.988), grouping quality ranges from 0.03 to 0.46 ARI. Matched synthetic composites are much easier than real same-author squashed diffs (+0.333 ARI). In our evaluation, the GPT-5.4 setup driven by Codex CLI (0.46 ARI) and the GLM-5 setup driven by Claude Code (0.43 ARI) outperform MiniMax (0.31) and Kimi (0.29). Qualitative analysis identifies same-file lumping and support-hunk drift as recurring failure modes. Dependency-Aware Commit Evidence (DACE) improves the lower-scoring setups by 0.05 to 0.08 ARI, indicating that dependency cues and hunk-role information help agents avoid locality-driven grouping errors. AtomicCommitBench enables evaluation of the commit histories produced by coding agents alongside the final code.

Temporal Awareness, the ability to reason dynamically based on the timestamp when a question is raised, is the key distinction between offline and online video LLMs. Unlike offline models, which rely on complete videos for static, post hoc analysis, online models process video streams incrementally and dynamically adapt their responses based on the timestamp at which the question is posed. Despite its significance, temporal awareness has not been adequately evaluated in existing benchmarks. To fill this gap, we present OVO-Bench (Online-VideO-Benchmark), a novel video benchmark that emphasizes the importance of timestamps for advanced online video understanding capability benchmarking. OVO-Bench evaluates the ability of video LLMs to reason and respond to events occurring at specific timestamps under three distinct scenarios: (1) Backward tracing: trace back to past events to answer the question. (2) Real-time understanding: understand and respond to events as they unfold at the current timestamp. (3) Forward active responding: delay the response until sufficient future information becomes available to answer the question accurately. OVO-Bench comprises 12 tasks, featuring 644 unique videos and approximately human-curated 2,800 fine-grained meta-annotations with precise timestamps. We combine automated generation pipelines with human curation. With these high-quality samples, we further developed an evaluation pipeline to systematically query video LLMs along the video timeline. Evaluations of nine Video-LLMs reveal that, despite advancements on traditional benchmarks, current models struggle with online video understanding, showing a significant gap compared to human agents. We hope OVO-Bench will drive progress in video LLMs and inspire future research in online video reasoning. Our benchmark and code can be accessed at https://github.com/JoeLeelyf/OVO-Bench.

Autonomous LLM agents can pursue hidden malicious objectives through sequences of individually benign actions, making sabotage difficult to detect using standard trajectory-level monitoring. Existing approaches either evaluate complete trajectories in a single pass or partition them into independently scored windows, limiting their ability to connect evidence across temporally distant actions. We propose TRACE, a monitoring framework for long-horizon LLM agent trajectories. TRACE operates through a TIJ (Triage-Inspect-Judge) loop that identifies high-signal regions, performs targeted inspection while maintaining accumulated evidence across reasoning steps, and synthesizes a trajectory-level verdict. We evaluate TRACE on ten task domains from SHADE-Arena against state-of-the-art baselines. TRACE achieves an aggregate F1 of 0.713 and recall of 0.844, with the largest gains on tasks requiring long-range evidence linking.

Earthquake monitoring is necessary to promptly identify the affected areas, the severity of the events, and, finally, to estimate damages and plan the actions needed for the restoration process. The use of seismic stations to monitor the strength and origin of earthquakes is limited when dealing with remote areas (we cannot have global capillary coverage). Identification and analysis of all affected areas is mandatory to support areas not monitored by traditional stations. Using social media images in crisis management has proven effective in various situations. However, they are still limited by the possibility of using communication infrastructures in case of an earthquake and by the presence of people in the area. Moreover, social media images and messages cannot be used to estimate the actual severity of earthquakes and their characteristics effectively. The employment of satellites to monitor changes around the globe grants the possibility of exploiting instrumentation that is not limited by the visible spectrum, the presence of land infrastructures, and people in the affected areas. In this work, we propose a new dataset composed of images taken from Sentinel-1 and a new series of tasks to help monitor earthquakes from a new detailed view. Coupled with the data, we provide a series of traditional machine learning and deep learning models as baselines to assess the effectiveness of ML-based models in earthquake analysis.

Web platforms, mobile applications, and connected sensing systems generate multivariate time series with states at multiple levels of granularity, from coarse regimes to fine-grained events. Effective segmentation in these settings requires integrating across granularities while supporting iterative refinement through sparse prompt signals, which provide a compact mechanism for injecting domain knowledge. Yet existing prompting approaches for time series segmentation operate only within local contexts, so the effect of a prompt quickly fades and cannot guide predictions across the entire sequence. To overcome this limitation, we propose MemPromptTSS, a framework for iterative multi-granularity segmentation that introduces persistent prompt memory. A memory encoder transforms prompts and their surrounding subsequences into memory tokens stored in a bank. This persistent memory enables each new prediction to condition not only on local cues but also on all prompts accumulated across iterations, ensuring their influence persists across the entire sequence. Experiments on six datasets covering wearable sensing and industrial monitoring show that MemPromptTSS achieves 23% and 85% accuracy improvements over the best baseline in single- and multi-granularity segmentation under single iteration inference, and provides stronger refinement in iterative inference with average per-iteration gains of 2.66 percentage points compared to 1.19 for PromptTSS. These results highlight the importance of persistent memory for prompt-guided segmentation, establishing MemPromptTSS as a practical and effective framework for real-world applications.

Memory enables Large Language Model (LLM) agents to perceive, store, and use information from past dialogues, which is essential for personalization. However, existing methods fail to properly model the temporal dimension of memory in two aspects: 1) Temporal inaccuracy: memories are organized by dialogue time rather than their actual occurrence time; 2) Temporal fragmentation: existing methods focus on point-wise memory, losing durative information that captures persistent states and evolving patterns. To address these limitations, we propose Temporal Semantic Memory (TSM), a memory framework that models semantic time for point-wise memory and supports the construction and utilization of durative memory. During memory construction, it first builds a semantic timeline rather than a dialogue one. Then, it consolidates temporally continuous and semantically related information into a durative memory. During memory utilization, it incorporates the query's temporal intent on the semantic timeline, enabling the retrieval of temporally appropriate durative memories and providing time-valid, duration-consistent context to support response generation. Experiments on LongMemEval and LoCoMo show that TSM consistently outperforms existing methods and achieves up to 12.2% absolute improvement in accuracy, demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed method.

We here propose a machine learning approach for monitoring particle detectors in real-time. The goal is to assess the compatibility of incoming experimental data with a reference dataset, characterising the data behaviour under normal circumstances, via a likelihood-ratio hypothesis test. The model is based on a modern implementation of kernel methods, nonparametric algorithms that can learn any continuous function given enough data. The resulting approach is efficient and agnostic to the type of anomaly that may be present in the data. Our study demonstrates the effectiveness of this strategy on multivariate data from drift tube chamber muon detectors.

We present a self-supervised, time-to-event (TTE) foundation model called MOTOR (Many Outcome Time Oriented Representations) which is pretrained on timestamped sequences of events in electronic health records (EHR) and health insurance claims. TTE models are used for estimating the probability distribution of the time until a specific event occurs, which is an important task in medical settings. TTE models provide many advantages over classification using fixed time horizons, including naturally handling censored observations, but are challenging to train with limited labeled data. MOTOR addresses this challenge by pretraining on up to 55M patient records (9B clinical events). We evaluate MOTOR's transfer learning performance on 19 tasks, across 3 patient databases (a private EHR system, MIMIC-IV, and Merative claims data). Task-specific models adapted from MOTOR improve time-dependent C statistics by 4.6% over state-of-the-art, improve label efficiency by up to 95% ,and are more robust to temporal distributional shifts. We further evaluate cross-site portability by adapting our MOTOR foundation model for six prediction tasks on the MIMIC-IV dataset, where it outperforms all baselines. MOTOR is the first foundation model for medical TTE predictions and we release a 143M parameter pretrained model for research use at [redacted URL].

Delayed outcomes are ubiquitous in online experimentation: treatment can affect whether an outcome occurs, when it occurs, and its realized value. To accommodate staggered entry while remaining robust to environmental nonstationarity and unit-level heterogeneity, we adopt a design-based perspective and target the sample cumulative reward in each arm as a function of calendar time. Our confidence sequences allow practitioners to continuously monitor the counterfactual incremental reward, such as revenue, that would have been realized by calendar time t had all entered units been assigned to treatment rather than control. The main technical challenge is the choice of design-based filtration, complicated by the presence of asynchronous potential outcome times. We show that the IPW treatment-effect estimation error is not a martingale with respect to any filtration, while each arm-specific IPW estimation error is a martingale with respect to a carefully chosen arm-specific event-time filtration. We therefore construct a confidence sequence for the treatment effect by combining two arm-level confidence sequences with a union bound, and further demonstrate that this can outperform the traditional design-based variance upper bound. Finally, we characterize the class of augmentations for which the per-arm AIPW estimation error remains a martingale.

Point tracking in videos is a fundamental task with applications in robotics, video editing, and more. While many vision tasks benefit from pre-trained feature backbones to improve generalizability, point tracking has primarily relied on simpler backbones trained from scratch on synthetic data, which may limit robustness in real-world scenarios. Additionally, point tracking requires temporal awareness to ensure coherence across frames, but using temporally-aware features is still underexplored. Most current methods often employ a two-stage process: an initial coarse prediction followed by a refinement stage to inject temporal information and correct errors from the coarse stage. These approach, however, is computationally expensive and potentially redundant if the feature backbone itself captures sufficient temporal information. In this work, we introduce Chrono, a feature backbone specifically designed for point tracking with built-in temporal awareness. Leveraging pre-trained representations from self-supervised learner DINOv2 and enhanced with a temporal adapter, Chrono effectively captures long-term temporal context, enabling precise prediction even without the refinement stage. Experimental results demonstrate that Chrono achieves state-of-the-art performance in a refiner-free setting on the TAP-Vid-DAVIS and TAP-Vid-Kinetics datasets, among common feature backbones used in point tracking as well as DINOv2, with exceptional efficiency. Project page: https://cvlab-kaist.github.io/Chrono/

Streaming video models should respond the moment an event unfolds, not after the moment has passed. Yet existing online VideoQA benchmarks remain largely retrospective. They pause the video at fixed timestamps, pose questions about current or past events, and score models only at those moments. This protocol leaves streaming predictions untested. To close this gap, we introduce SPOT-Bench, featuring multi-turn proactive queries that evaluate general streaming perception and assistive capabilities required by an always-on, real-time assistant. SPOT-Bench comes with Timeliness-F1, a consolidated metric that measures streaming predictions by their temporal precision and balanced coverage across the entire video. Our benchmark reveals: (i) offline models detect events reliably but spam predictions unprompted; (ii) post-training for silence reduces spamming but induces unresponsiveness; (iii) half of the streaming video expects no response, which we term dead-time - compute spent here does not affect response latency. These findings motivate AsynKV, a training-free streaming adaptation of offline models, that retains their event perception while improving their streaming behavior. AsynKV features a long-short term memory, utilized efficiently by scaling compute during dead-time. It serves as a strong baseline on SPOT-Bench, outperforming existing streaming models, and achieves state-of-the-art on retrospective benchmarks.

Long-term temporal information is crucial for event-based perception tasks, as raw events only encode pixel brightness changes. Recent works show that when trained from scratch, recurrent models achieve better results than feedforward models in these tasks. However, when leveraging self-supervised pre-trained weights, feedforward models can outperform their recurrent counterparts. Current self-supervised learning (SSL) methods for event-based pre-training largely mimic RGB image-based approaches. They pre-train feedforward models on raw events within a short time interval, ignoring the temporal information of events. In this work, we introduce TESPEC, a self-supervised pre-training framework tailored for learning spatio-temporal information. TESPEC is well-suited for recurrent models, as it is the first framework to leverage long event sequences during pre-training. TESPEC employs the masked image modeling paradigm with a new reconstruction target. We design a novel method to accumulate events into pseudo grayscale videos containing high-level semantic information about the underlying scene, which is robust to sensor noise and reduces motion blur. Reconstructing this target thus requires the model to reason about long-term history of events. Extensive experiments demonstrate our state-of-the-art results in downstream tasks, including object detection, semantic segmentation, and monocular depth estimation. Project webpage: https://mhdmohammadi.github.io/TESPEC_webpage.

The increasing deployment of AI agents in long-horizon tasks yields massive execution logs. Diagnosing failures within these records is crucial for reliability, as it transforms outcome-level signals into actionable interventions. The sheer scale of the data renders human review impractical, driving the need for automated root-cause attribution (RCA). However, automated RCA methods using LLMs suffer from low diagnostic accuracy, especially as execution traces grow larger. They struggle because relevant information is often sparse, distributed across distant actions, and disconnected from the visible failure, reducing root-cause attribution to a massive search problem. Existing RCA methods typically rely on one-shot LLM judgments to diagnose failures from execution traces. While effective for shorter trajectories, these judges tend to settle on a plausible diagnosis early, leaving critical evidence in longer traces unexamined. We introduce Continual Search, an iterative framework that nudges the judge, over successive turns, to keep searching for unresolved diagnostic evidence. We evaluate Continual Search across four existing RCA benchmarks. Recognizing the lack of massive execution traces in current benchmarks, we introduce MegaRCA-Mix to evaluate RCA at scale. MegaRCA-Mix provides a challenging testbed of 50 human-annotated failure trials spanning long-horizon, execution-heavy tasks. Across multiple benchmark suites and model families, Continual Search consistently improves attribution performance. On MegaRCA-Mix, for example, it improves GPT-5.5's F1 score by more than 40\%, from 0.349 to 0.498. More interestingly, within the same model family, lower-tier models can even surpass their higher-tier counterparts, demonstrating that effective search supersedes raw model scale.

Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have enabled conversational AI agents to engage in extended multi-turn interactions spanning weeks or months. However, existing memory systems struggle to reason over temporally grounded facts and preferences that evolve across months of interaction and lack effective retrieval strategies for multi-hop, time-sensitive queries over long dialogue histories. We introduce Chronos, a novel temporal-aware memory framework that decomposes raw dialogue into subject-verb-object event tuples with resolved datetime ranges and entity aliases, indexing them in a structured event calendar alongside a turn calendar that preserves full conversational context. At query time, Chronos applies dynamic prompting to generate tailored retrieval guidance for each question, directing the agent on what to retrieve, how to filter across time ranges, and how to approach multi-hop reasoning through an iterative tool-calling loop over both calendars. We evaluate Chronos with 8 LLMs, both open-source and closed-source, on the LongMemEvalS benchmark comprising 500 questions spanning six categories of dialogue history tasks. Chronos Low achieves 92.60% and Chronos High scores 95.60% accuracy, setting a new state of the art with an improvement of 7.67% over the best prior system. Ablation results reveal the events calendar accounts for a 58.9% gain on the baseline while all other components yield improvements between 15.5% and 22.3%. Notably, Chronos Low alone surpasses prior approaches evaluated under their strongest model configurations.

Temporal Point Processes (TPP) are probabilistic generative frameworks. They model discrete event sequences localized in continuous time. Generally, real-life events reveal descriptive information, known as marks. Marked TPPs model time and marks of the event together for practical relevance. Conditioned on past events, marked TPPs aim to learn the joint distribution of the time and the mark of the next event. For simplicity, conditionally independent TPP models assume time and marks are independent given event history. They factorize the conditional joint distribution of time and mark into the product of individual conditional distributions. This structural limitation in the design of TPP models hurt the predictive performance on entangled time and mark interactions. In this work, we model the conditional inter-dependence of time and mark to overcome the limitations of conditionally independent models. We construct a multivariate TPP conditioning the time distribution on the current event mark in addition to past events. Besides the conventional intensity-based models for conditional joint distribution, we also draw on flexible intensity-free TPP models from the literature. The proposed TPP models outperform conditionally independent and dependent models in standard prediction tasks. Our experimentation on various datasets with multiple evaluation metrics highlights the merit of the proposed approach.

Nowadays, wearable devices can continuously lifelog ambient conversations, creating substantial opportunities for memory systems. However, existing benchmarks primarily focus on online one-on-one chatting or human-AI interactions, thus neglecting the unique demands of real-world scenarios. Given the scarcity of public lifelogging audio datasets, we propose a hierarchical synthesis framework to curate \textsc{LifeDialBench}, a novel benchmark comprising two complementary subsets: EgoMem, built on real-world egocentric videos, and LifeMem, constructed using simulated virtual community. Crucially, to address the issue of temporal leakage in traditional offline settings, we propose an Online Evaluation protocol that strictly adheres to temporal causality, ensuring systems are evaluated in a realistic streaming fashion. Our experimental results reveal a counterintuitive finding: current sophisticated memory systems fail to outperform a simple RAG-based baseline. This highlights the detrimental impact of over-designed structures and lossy compression in current approaches, emphasizing the necessity of high-fidelity context preservation for lifelog scenarios.

In mobile telecommunications, alarms act as early warning signals. They are triggered when a cell, the basic unit of radio coverage, shuts down or behaves abnormally. This signals a degradation in service quality, which directly affects the customer experience. To fix the issue, operators rely on preset thresholds to decide when an engineer should be sent out. In practice, these thresholds are set manually and remain fixed regardless of the time of day, traffic levels, or overall network conditions. This often leads to serious faults slipping through during busy hours, while minor issues can cause unnecessary callouts when the network is quiet. This paper presents a machine learning framework that automatically predicts four alarm thresholds, audit window duration, inactive time limit, total fluctuation count, and per hour fluctuation limit, from live network behavior. Since no ground truth labels exist for thresholds, we introduce a percentile guided label derivation strategy and evaluate four models on an anonymized dataset of 10,648 cells across three vendors and nine regions from a real 4G network, comprising a Gradient Boosted Trees baseline, a CNN-BiLSTM with attention, the proposed PCTN, and an iTransformer. PCTN performs the best overall with respect to three of the four targets, outperforming a state-of-the-art iTransformer while using 83 percent fewer parameters. Its mixed output heads and dynamic alpha mechanism produce thresholds that are both accurate and interpretable, allowing operators to inspect and adjust the learned policy without retraining. All comparisons are statistically significant at p < 0.001. The framework undergoes daily retraining using new data, which enables the thresholds to constantly adjust to changes in the network.

Continuous-time event sequences play a vital role in real-world domains such as healthcare, finance, online shopping, social networks, and so on. To model such data, temporal point processes (TPPs) have emerged as the most natural and competitive models, making a significant impact in both academic and application communities. Despite the emergence of many powerful models in recent years, there hasn't been a central benchmark for these models and future research endeavors. This lack of standardization impedes researchers and practitioners from comparing methods and reproducing results, potentially slowing down progress in this field. In this paper, we present EasyTPP, the first central repository of research assets (e.g., data, models, evaluation programs, documentations) in the area of event sequence modeling. Our EasyTPP makes several unique contributions to this area: a unified interface of using existing datasets and adding new datasets; a wide range of evaluation programs that are easy to use and extend as well as facilitate reproducible research; implementations of popular neural TPPs, together with a rich library of modules by composing which one could quickly build complex models. All the data and implementation can be found at https://github.com/ant-research/EasyTemporalPointProcess. We will actively maintain this benchmark and welcome contributions from other researchers and practitioners. Our benchmark will help promote reproducible research in this field, thus accelerating research progress as well as making more significant real-world impacts.

Observability into the decision making of modern AI systems may be required to safely deploy increasingly capable agents. Monitoring the chain-of-thought (CoT) of today's reasoning models has proven effective for detecting misbehavior. However, this "monitorability" may be fragile under different training procedures, data sources, or even continued system scaling. To measure and track monitorability, we propose three evaluation archetypes (intervention, process, and outcome-property) and a new monitorability metric, and introduce a broad evaluation suite. We demonstrate that these evaluations can catch simple model organisms trained to have obfuscated CoTs, and that CoT monitoring is more effective than action-only monitoring in practical settings. We compare the monitorability of various frontier models and find that most models are fairly, but not perfectly, monitorable. We also evaluate how monitorability scales with inference-time compute, reinforcement learning optimization, and pre-training model size. We find that longer CoTs are generally more monitorable and that RL optimization does not materially decrease monitorability even at the current frontier scale. Notably, we find that for a model at a low reasoning effort, we could instead deploy a smaller model at a higher reasoning effort (thereby matching capabilities) and obtain a higher monitorability, albeit at a higher overall inference compute cost. We further investigate agent-monitor scaling trends and find that scaling a weak monitor's test-time compute when monitoring a strong agent increases monitorability. Giving the weak monitor access to CoT not only improves monitorability, but it steepens the monitor's test-time compute to monitorability scaling trend. Finally, we show we can improve monitorability by asking models follow-up questions and giving their follow-up CoT to the monitor.

Pairwise dependence measures such as correlation and causality are fundamental to temporal data mining, yet there is still no principled and robust way to quantify dependence between heterogeneous data types, especially between continuous time series and discrete temporal event sequences. Existing approaches rely on ad hoc transformations or mutual-information estimators that are highly sensitive to quantization, repeated values, and event redundancy, leading to biased or unstable results in practice. We propose a nonparametric mutual information estimator that directly measures the dependence between time series and event sequences without data transformation, learning, or ad hoc discretization. Our method models the continuous-discrete duality of real-world time series to handle quantization and repeated-value artifacts and introduces a latent event clustering strategy to mitigate bias from event co-occurrence and redundancy. Together, these yield a robust and unified framework that bridges discrete and continuous mutual information. We evaluate the proposed estimator on four representative tasks: discrete-continuous time-delayed mutual information for causality analysis, global and local temporal repetition discovery, discrete covariate selection for time series forecasting, and continuous feature selection for classification. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets show consistent improvements over existing methods in accuracy, robustness, and interpretability, positioning our approach as a general-purpose dependence operator for heterogeneous temporal data, similar to Pearson correlation for homogeneous time series. Code available at: https://github.com/HaojiHu/Multimodal-Temporal-Data-Quantification

Online Surgical Phase Recognition (SPR) models can reach high frame-wise accuracy, yet their predictions often lack temporal stability, fragmenting workflow understanding and reducing the reliability of downstream assistance. We show that this instability is not random noise but arises from two mechanisms: early misclassifications corrupt temporal feature states and propagate forward to form error cascades, and phase transitions follow evidence-accumulation dynamics whereas most online SPR systems rely on memoryless frame-wise decisions, making them sensitive to transient confidence fluctuations. We propose a unified Train-Inference-Evaluation framework that explicitly stabilizes temporal inference dynamics using model-agnostic, plug-and-play components. For training, the Temporal Error-Cascade (TEC) loss suppresses error onset and mitigates forward error propagation by stabilizing temporal feature evolution. For inference, the Evidence-Gated Transition Predictor (EGTP) enforces evidence-driven state transitions, allowing phase changes only when accumulated evidence exceeds a confidence boundary. For evaluation, we introduce the Temporal Fragmentation Index (TFI), a reliability-aware metric that quantifies instability-induced temporal disagreement beyond conventional frame-wise and token-based measures. Experiments on Cholec80 and AutoLaparo across three representative backbones show that the proposed framework substantially improves temporal stability and reduces prediction fragmentation, while maintaining or modestly improving frame-wise performance.

Large language model (LLM) agents now execute long, tool-using tasks where final outcome checks can arrive too late for intervention. Online warning requires lightweight prefix monitors over heterogeneous traces, but hand-authored event schemas are brittle and deployment-time LLM judging is costly. We introduce PrefixGuard, a trace-to-monitor framework with an offline StepView induction step followed by supervised monitor training. StepView induces deterministic typed-step adapters from raw trace samples, and the monitor learns an event abstraction and prefix-risk scorer from terminal outcomes. Across WebArena, τ^2-Bench, SkillsBench, and TerminalBench, the strongest PrefixGuard monitors reach 0.900/0.710/0.533/0.557 AUPRC. Using the strongest backend within each representation, they improve over raw-text controls by an average of +0.137 AUPRC. LLM judges remain substantially weaker under the same prefix-warning protocol. We also derive an observability ceiling on score-based area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) that separates monitor error from failures lacking evidence in the observed prefix. For finite-state audit, post-hoc deterministic finite automaton (DFA) extraction remains compact on WebArena and τ^2-Bench (29 and 20 states) but expands to 151 and 187 states on SkillsBench and TerminalBench. Finally, first-alert diagnostics show that strong ranking does not imply deployment utility: WebArena ranks well yet fails to support low-false-alarm alerts, whereas τ^2-Bench and TerminalBench retain more actionable early alerts. Together, these results position PrefixGuard as a practical monitor-synthesis recipe with explicit diagnostics for when prefix warnings translate into actionable interventions.

Sequential recommendation (SR) models capture continuously observed behavior, but a returning user may have no interactions for months or years. We define this setting as Zero-Observation Reactivation: the user has a pre-gap history, while the platform observes no behavioral signals during a macro-gap Delta t. Under a chronologically aligned Gap-Synthesize Protocol on three Amazon datasets (Video Games, CDs & Vinyl, and Movies & TV), Hit@10 decreases monotonically across the evaluated gap buckets and reaches its lowest level beyond one year. The pattern appears across recurrent, unidirectional, and bidirectional SR backbones. We propose DeltaGate, a lightweight output-layer plugin that keeps the backbone frozen and routes each representation dimension between the personalized history and a learned, zero-initialized global prior. The gate is conditioned jointly on Delta t and the personalized representation. In a controlled diagnostic, we hold the personalized representation fixed and vary Delta t to isolate the trained gate's response to the gap input. In the >365d Video Games bucket, DG-SASRec reaches 0.047 Hit@10 versus 0.031 for SASRec, while DG-BERT4Rec reaches 0.046 versus 0.025 for BERT4Rec, with 66K trainable parameters (2--4% overhead). End-to-end retraining attains higher absolute accuracy but changes the backbone embeddings; the frozen plugin preserves zero backbone drift, uses about 40x fewer trainable parameters, and retains observable dimension-wise routing. The source code is available at https://github.com/jdding/DeltaGate.

Episodic memory retrieval enables wearable cameras to recall objects or events previously observed in video. However, existing formulations assume an "offline" setting with full video access at query time, limiting their applicability in real-world scenarios with power and storage-constrained wearable devices. Towards more application-ready episodic memory systems, we introduce Online Visual Query 2D (OVQ2D), a task where models process video streams online, observing each frame only once, and retrieve object localizations using a compact memory instead of full video history. We address OVQ2D with ESOM (Egocentric Streaming Object Memory), a novel framework integrating an object discovery module, an object tracking module, and a memory module that find, track, and store spatio-temporal object information for efficient querying. Experiments on Ego4D demonstrate ESOM's superiority over other online approaches, though OVQ2D remains challenging, with top performance at only ~4% success. ESOM's accuracy increases markedly with perfect object tracking (31.91%), discovery (40.55%), or both (81.92%), underscoring the need of applied research on these components.

Small Language Models (SLMs) are increasingly being considered for deployment on edge devices such as laptops, enabling private, low-latency, and locally personalized applications. However, personalization requires models to adapt over time to evolving user- or task-specific data, placing them in a continual learning setting. This creates the risk of catastrophic forgetting, where learning new information degrades performance on previously learned tasks or broader model capabilities. Recent benchmarks such as TRACE have shown that continual fine-tuning can significantly degrade the general abilities of aligned large language models. In this work, we present a study for sequential LoRA personalization of SLMs. We save model checkpoints after each adaptation stage and evaluate them on current tasks, previously seen tasks, and a fixed reference set. This checkpoint-level protocol enables us to monitor task performance, forgetting, and reference set drift over time. We show that lightweight reference set distributional diagnostics can reveal model-specific instability patterns during sequential LoRA personalization of SLMs, including cases where task-level metrics alone hide harmful adaptation. We hope this can highlight new research avenues for monitoring stability of SLMs in a continual learning setting.

Memory management is vital for LLM agents to handle long-term interaction and personalization. Most research focuses on how to organize and use memory summary, but often overlooks the initial memory extraction stage. In this paper, we argue that existing summary-based methods have two major limitations based on the recurrent processing theory. First, summarization is "ahead-of-time", acting as a blind "feed-forward" process that misses important details because it doesn't know future tasks. Second, extraction is usually "one-off", lacking a feedback loop to verify facts, which leads to the accumulation of information loss. To address these issues, we propose proactive memory extraction (namely ProMem). Unlike static summarization, ProMem treats extraction as an iterative cognitive process. We introduce a recurrent feedback loop where the agent uses self-questioning to actively probe the dialogue history. This mechanism allows the agent to recover missing information and correct errors. Our ProMem significantly improves the completeness of the extracted memory and QA accuracy. It also achieves a superior trade-off between extraction quality and token cost.

Users of music streaming, video streaming, news recommendation, and e-commerce services often engage with content in a sequential manner. Providing and evaluating good sequences of recommendations is therefore a central problem for these services. Prior reweighting-based counterfactual evaluation methods either suffer from high variance or make strong independence assumptions about rewards. We propose a new counterfactual estimator that allows for sequential interactions in the rewards with lower variance in an asymptotically unbiased manner. Our method uses graphical assumptions about the causal relationships of the slate to reweight the rewards in the logging policy in a way that approximates the expected sum of rewards under the target policy. Extensive experiments in simulation and on a live recommender system show that our approach outperforms existing methods in terms of bias and data efficiency for the sequential track recommendations problem.

Large LMs such as GPT-3 are powerful, but can commit mistakes that are obvious to humans. For example, GPT-3 would mistakenly interpret "What word is similar to good?" to mean a homophone, while the user intended a synonym. Our goal is to effectively correct such errors via user interactions with the system but without retraining, which will be prohibitively costly. We pair GPT-3 with a growing memory of recorded cases where the model misunderstood the user's intents, along with user feedback for clarification. Such a memory allows our system to produce enhanced prompts for any new query based on the user feedback for error correction on similar cases in the past. On four tasks (two lexical tasks, two advanced ethical reasoning tasks), we show how a (simulated) user can interactively teach a deployed GPT-3, substantially increasing its accuracy over the queries with different kinds of misunderstandings by the GPT-3. Our approach is a step towards the low-cost utility enhancement for very large pre-trained LMs. Code, data, and instructions to implement MEMPROMPT for a new task at https://www.memprompt.com/.

We introduce MOMENT, a family of open-source foundation models for general-purpose time-series analysis. Pre-training large models on time-series data is challenging due to (1) the absence of a large and cohesive public time-series repository, and (2) diverse time-series characteristics which make multi-dataset training onerous. Additionally, (3) experimental benchmarks to evaluate these models, especially in scenarios with limited resources, time, and supervision, are still in their nascent stages. To address these challenges, we compile a large and diverse collection of public time-series, called the Time-series Pile, and systematically tackle time-series-specific challenges to unlock large-scale multi-dataset pre-training. Finally, we build on recent work to design a benchmark to evaluate time-series foundation models on diverse tasks and datasets in limited supervision settings. Experiments on this benchmark demonstrate the effectiveness of our pre-trained models with minimal data and task-specific fine-tuning. Finally, we present several interesting empirical observations about large pre-trained time-series models. Our code is available anonymously at anonymous.4open.science/r/BETT-773F/.

Most benchmarks for causal inference over time series are observational, small, or domain-specific, leaving interventional and counterfactual estimation under-served exactly where it matters most, such as in healthcare, policy evaluation, and climate science. We introduce DoTime, an open, scalable, and theoretically grounded generator of multivariate temporal structural causal models (TSCMs) with interventions, released as the dotime PyPI package together with four frozen evaluation suites. Beyond existing work, it adds capabilities absent from prior generators: continuous-time intervention windows, counterfactual sampling modes with a positivity guard, regime-switching SCMs as a strict generalization of interrupted time series, non-stationary dynamics by construction with switching SCM parameters, and deterministic ramp and sinusoidal intervention profiles that place trends and structural breaks inside the evaluation window. Moreover, it demonstrates the suitability of the generator as a prior for a causal foundation model reference implementation. The released suites span a training-scale snapshot of 100{,}000 trajectories and eight named identification structures, each with exact ground truth: paired interventional trajectories from the same SCM throughout, and shared-noise counterfactuals in the continuous-time suite. We ship reference baseline implementations with an evaluation harness, and pose a falsifiable claim: interventional training buys a measurable direction-accuracy advantage over an observational model of identical capacity. It is tested across three training seeds per arm. Under structure-matched evaluation on held-out episodes, the interventional prior-fitted network's (PFN) gap is positive in every structure, trajectory length, and seed tested.

People learn throughout life. However, incrementally updating conventional neural networks leads to catastrophic forgetting. A common remedy is replay, which is inspired by how the brain consolidates memory. Replay involves fine-tuning a network on a mixture of new and old instances. While there is neuroscientific evidence that the brain replays compressed memories, existing methods for convolutional networks replay raw images. Here, we propose REMIND, a brain-inspired approach that enables efficient replay with compressed representations. REMIND is trained in an online manner, meaning it learns one example at a time, which is closer to how humans learn. Under the same constraints, REMIND outperforms other methods for incremental class learning on the ImageNet ILSVRC-2012 dataset. We probe REMIND's robustness to data ordering schemes known to induce catastrophic forgetting. We demonstrate REMIND's generality by pioneering online learning for Visual Question Answering (VQA).

The objective of digital forgetting is, given a model with undesirable knowledge or behavior, obtain a new model where the detected issues are no longer present. The motivations for forgetting include privacy protection, copyright protection, elimination of biases and discrimination, and prevention of harmful content generation. Effective digital forgetting has to be effective (meaning how well the new model has forgotten the undesired knowledge/behavior), retain the performance of the original model on the desirable tasks, and be scalable (in particular forgetting has to be more efficient than retraining from scratch on just the tasks/data to be retained). This survey focuses on forgetting in large language models (LLMs). We first provide background on LLMs, including their components, the types of LLMs, and their usual training pipeline. Second, we describe the motivations, types, and desired properties of digital forgetting. Third, we introduce the approaches to digital forgetting in LLMs, among which unlearning methodologies stand out as the state of the art. Fourth, we provide a detailed taxonomy of machine unlearning methods for LLMs, and we survey and compare current approaches. Fifth, we detail datasets, models and metrics used for the evaluation of forgetting, retaining and runtime. Sixth, we discuss challenges in the area. Finally, we provide some concluding remarks.

Multi-modal large language models (MM-LLMs) have shown strong performance in medical image understanding and clinical reasoning. Recent medical agent systems extend them with tool use and multi-agent collaboration, enabling complex decision-making. However, these systems rely almost entirely on frontier models (e.g., GPT), whose API-based deployment incurs high cost, high latency, and privacy risks that conflict with on-premise clinical requirements. We present Meissa, a lightweight 4B-parameter medical MM-LLM that brings agentic capability offline. Instead of imitating static answers, Meissa learns both when to engage external interaction (strategy selection) and how to execute multi-step interaction (strategy execution) by distilling structured trajectories from frontier models. Specifically, we propose: (1) Unified trajectory modeling: trajectories (reasoning and action traces) are represented within a single state-action-observation formalism, allowing one model to generalize across heterogeneous medical environments. (2) Three-tier stratified supervision: the model's own errors trigger progressive escalation from direct reasoning to tool-augmented and multi-agent interaction, explicitly learning difficulty-aware strategy selection. (3) Prospective-retrospective supervision: pairing exploratory forward traces with hindsight-rationalized execution traces enables stable learning of effective interaction policies. Trained on 40K curated trajectories, Meissa matches or exceeds proprietary frontier agents in 10 of 16 evaluation settings across 13 medical benchmarks spanning radiology, pathology, and clinical reasoning. Using over 25x fewer parameters than typical frontier models like Gemini-3, Meissa operates fully offline with 22x lower end-to-end latency compared to API-based deployment. Data, models, and environments are released at https://github.com/Schuture/Meissa.

Self-supervision may boost model performance in downstream tasks. However, there is no principled way of selecting the self-supervised objectives that yield the most adaptable models. Here, we study this problem on daily time-series data generated from wearable sensors used to detect onset of influenza-like illness (ILI). We first show that using self-supervised learning to predict next-day time-series values allows us to learn rich representations which can be adapted to perform accurate ILI prediction. Second, we perform an empirical analysis of three different self-supervised objectives to assess their adaptability to ILI prediction. Our results show that predicting the next day's resting heart rate or time-in-bed during sleep provides better representations for ILI prediction. These findings add to previous work demonstrating the practical application of self-supervised learning from activity data to improve health predictions.

Time plays a critical role in how information is generated, retrieved, and interpreted. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive overview of Temporal Information Retrieval and Temporal Question Answering, two research areas aimed at handling and understanding time-sensitive information. As the amount of time-stamped content from sources like news articles, web archives, and knowledge bases increases, systems must address challenges such as detecting temporal intent, normalizing time expressions, ordering events, and reasoning over evolving or ambiguous facts. These challenges are critical across many dynamic and time-sensitive domains, from news and encyclopedias to science, history, and social media. We review both traditional approaches and modern neural methods, including those that use transformer models and Large Language Models (LLMs). We also review recent advances in temporal language modeling, multi-hop reasoning, and retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), alongside benchmark datasets and evaluation strategies that test temporal robustness, recency awareness, and generalization.

Extending discrete-time causal Prior-data Fitted Networks for time series to continuous time invites writing the mechanism as a stochastic differential equation (SDE) -- but if the SDE is integrated once per observation gap, the trajectory law depends on when it is observed, and the prior remains a discrete-time Markov model in SDE clothing. We propose a precise continuity criterion -- trajectory-law invariance to the observation schedule -- together with a three-tier taxonomy (discrete; naive observation-grid integration; fine-grid integration with decoupled observation) and a construction realising the top tier on a random DAG with OU or small-MLP nonlinear drifts, irregular observation schedules, and hard / soft / time-varying interventions. A 2 times 2 encoder times integrator ablation, run independently on a linear and a nonlinear prior, finds fine-grid integration beats naive on 8/8 cells (sign-consistency p < 1/256) with the gap growing as the eval grid refines; the encoder axis is null with fine integration but time-aware-leading with naive. We release the prior and a preliminary zero-shot protocol on pharmacokinetic and physical-system data.

We introduce TypewriterLM, a 7.24B History language model (LM) trained exclusively on English text predating 1913. Developing History LMs requires addressing challenges in data quality and availability, preventing temporal leakage, designing temporally consistent post-training pipelines, and constructing reliable evaluations. To address these issues, we construct TypewriterCorpus, a 54B-token historical corpus collected from diverse archival and linguistically annotated sources with extensive data cleaning and leakage mitigation procedures. Furthermore, we introduce lexically grounded instructing tuning, a post-training framework that constraints responses to remain directly grounded in historical source documents. Using this framework we construct two historical instruction tuning datasets: History-LIMA and History-SelfInstruct. To evaluate capability and temporal consistency, we introduce History-Event, a benchmark suite for evaluating competence, temporal grounding and data leakage. We release TypewriterLM and all associated resources to support future research on historical language models.

Generic Event Boundary Detection (GEBD) aims to interpret long-form videos through the lens of human perception. However, current GEBD methods require processing complete video frames to make predictions, unlike humans processing data online and in real-time. To bridge this gap, we introduce a new task, Online Generic Event Boundary Detection (On-GEBD), aiming to detect boundaries of generic events immediately in streaming videos. This task faces unique challenges of identifying subtle, taxonomy-free event changes in real-time, without the access to future frames. To tackle these challenges, we propose a novel On-GEBD framework, Estimator, inspired by Event Segmentation Theory (EST) which explains how humans segment ongoing activity into events by leveraging the discrepancies between predicted and actual information. Our framework consists of two key components: the Consistent Event Anticipator (CEA), and the Online Boundary Discriminator (OBD). Specifically, the CEA generates a prediction of the future frame reflecting current event dynamics based solely on prior frames. Then, the OBD measures the prediction error and adaptively adjusts the threshold using statistical tests on past errors to capture diverse, subtle event transitions. Experimental results demonstrate that Estimator outperforms all baselines adapted from recent online video understanding models and achieves performance comparable to prior offline-GEBD methods on the Kinetics-GEBD and TAPOS datasets.

A central problem in learning from sequential data is representing cumulative history in an incremental fashion as more data is processed. We introduce a general framework (HiPPO) for the online compression of continuous signals and discrete time series by projection onto polynomial bases. Given a measure that specifies the importance of each time step in the past, HiPPO produces an optimal solution to a natural online function approximation problem. As special cases, our framework yields a short derivation of the recent Legendre Memory Unit (LMU) from first principles, and generalizes the ubiquitous gating mechanism of recurrent neural networks such as GRUs. This formal framework yields a new memory update mechanism (HiPPO-LegS) that scales through time to remember all history, avoiding priors on the timescale. HiPPO-LegS enjoys the theoretical benefits of timescale robustness, fast updates, and bounded gradients. By incorporating the memory dynamics into recurrent neural networks, HiPPO RNNs can empirically capture complex temporal dependencies. On the benchmark permuted MNIST dataset, HiPPO-LegS sets a new state-of-the-art accuracy of 98.3%. Finally, on a novel trajectory classification task testing robustness to out-of-distribution timescales and missing data, HiPPO-LegS outperforms RNN and neural ODE baselines by 25-40% accuracy.

Conversational data is increasingly used as a persistent source of user state for long-running assistants and AI agents. However, querying this data remains challenging because conversations naturally evolve: plans are revised, preferences change, and later messages frequently supersede or contradict earlier information. Existing long-memory pipelines largely treat memories as independent text or vector objects. This approach often retrieves semantically similar but stale evidence, offering limited support for state-aware reasoning. To address this problem, we present TRACE, a query processing framework over temporal evidence graphs for evolving conversational data. TRACE models conversations as a hierarchical graph spanning events, sessions, and topics, enriched with typed temporal, causal, update, and contradiction relations. Crucially, the framework maintains validity annotations so obsolete facts remain accessible for historical queries but are discounted for current-state answers. At query time, TRACE combines vector-based note retrieval with graph-guided evidence search, generating validity-aware support paths and a hybrid context for answer generation. This design separates lexical recall from evidence reconstruction, enabling bounded query-time reasoning over long conversational histories. Experiments on long-conversation query-answering (QA) benchmarks show that TRACE improves temporal and multi-hop reasoning, with ablations highlighting the importance of hierarchy, update-aware seeding, and path-grounded evidence.

Discrete event sequences are ubiquitous, such as an ordered event series of process interactions in Information and Communication Technology systems. Recent years have witnessed increasing efforts in detecting anomalies with discrete-event sequences. However, it still remains an extremely difficult task due to several intrinsic challenges including data imbalance issues, the discrete property of the events, and sequential nature of the data. To address these challenges, in this paper, we propose OC4Seq, a multi-scale one-class recurrent neural network for detecting anomalies in discrete event sequences. Specifically, OC4Seq integrates the anomaly detection objective with recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to embed the discrete event sequences into latent spaces, where anomalies can be easily detected. In addition, given that an anomalous sequence could be caused by either individual events, subsequences of events, or the whole sequence, we design a multi-scale RNN framework to capture different levels of sequential patterns simultaneously. Experimental results on three benchmark datasets show that OC4Seq consistently outperforms various representative baselines by a large margin. Moreover, through both quantitative and qualitative analysis, the importance of capturing multi-scale sequential patterns for event anomaly detection is verified.

Lower-Limb Fractures (LLF) are a major health concern for older adults, often leading to reduced mobility and prolonged recovery, potentially impairing daily activities and independence. During recovery, older adults frequently face social isolation and functional decline, complicating rehabilitation and adversely affecting physical and mental health. Multi-modal sensor platforms that continuously collect data and analyze it using machine-learning algorithms can remotely monitor this population and infer health outcomes. They can also alert clinicians to individuals at risk of isolation and decline. This paper presents a new publicly available multi-modal sensor dataset, MAISON-LLF, collected from older adults recovering from LLF in community settings. The dataset includes data from smartphone and smartwatch sensors, motion detectors, sleep-tracking mattresses, and clinical questionnaires on isolation and decline. The dataset was collected from ten older adults living alone at home for eight weeks each, totaling 560 days of 24-hour sensor data. For technical validation, supervised machine-learning and deep-learning models were developed using the sensor and clinical questionnaire data, providing a foundational comparison for the research community.

Quantization is widely used to reduce the computational and memory demands of neural-network inference. In recurrent networks, however, the quantized state is stored and returned at the next time step, so the rule used to store that state can alter subsequent computations. Here, we introduce recurrent-state write-back to denote this rule and isolate its effect in a compact GRU encoder--decoder for fluorescence lifetime imaging, a molecular imaging modality used in quantitative biological imaging. A central task is estimating two lifetime parameters, the short-lived component τ1 and the long-lived component τ2, from high-noise time-resolved fluorescence signals. Holding the trained model fixed, replacing continuous state propagation with deterministic 4-bit state storage increases estimation errors for τ1 and τ2 by approximately 70x and 300x, respectively. Failure occurs when repeated small updates remain below the write threshold, leaving the stored state nearly fixed while the network continues to propose change. Error feedback, residual memory, and direction memory carry information from these suppressed updates across time and recover accuracy without retraining. Precision sweeps show that increasing state precision can worsen a fixed recurrent solution, while matched training shows that compatibility with the state interface can be learned. To test whether this behavior extends beyond the GRU, we repeat the post-training intervention in an independently trained LSTM, where coarse write-back reproduces the failure, error feedback restores accuracy, and state-specific interventions reveal greater sensitivity of the cell state than the hidden state. Our results establish recurrent-state write-back as a key determinant of low-precision recurrent dynamics and identify the state-storage interface as a central design consideration for quantized recurrent inference.

Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction is essential for industrial predictive maintenance, yet many learning-based approaches rely on extensive feature engineering or large labeled datasets to train task-specific sequence models. In this work, we introduce a lightweight learning approach, in which we leverage a frozen pretrained time-series foundation model (TSFM) and combine it with a small regression head for RUL estimation from multivariate sensor streams. More specifically, we use Chronos-2 as a frozen backbone to extract context window features and train a lightweight regression neural network for RUL prediction. Experiments on real-world industrial sensor data from two device types show that Chronos-2 features consistently improve over recurrent, convolutional, Transformer-based, and gradient-boosting baselines under the same preprocessing and evaluation protocol. We further analyze the impact of context length and find that performance improves significantly with longer histories, indicating that TSFM representation offer a practical and data-efficient alternative for RUL estimation in industrial settings.